Reuters Playing host to an exiled Muammar Gaddafi would entail huge costs for any of the African countries on Libya's southern borders, who would likely face a diplomatic and economic backlash from the West and Libya's new rulers. That risk is seen outweighing residual admiration in the region for a leader who, while irking many states with his frequent meddling in their affairs, also lavished gifts on his neighbors and was a major voice of the anti-colonial movement. “There is no upside for anyone to take in Gaddafi. I don't buy the idea that popular support for Gaddafi would compel any of these governments to do that,” said Tom Cargill at London-based think-tank Chatham House. The arrival this week of Gaddafi's security chief Mansour Dhao in Niger and reports of a convoy of vehicles carrying pro-Gaddafi forces in the north of the country sparked speculation of a possible exile deal for the former Libyan ruler. Niger on Wednesday denied Gaddafi himself was in the country and said initial reports that the convoy in its desert north amounted to over 200 vehicles were vastly inflated. Mansour had been allowed entry on “humanitarian grounds”, it said. As Britain and France weighed in with demands that Gaddafi face justice either at home or in the International Criminal Court, Burkina Faso quickly played down an earlier exile offer, saying it had received no such request from Gaddafi. Gaddafi has repeatedly vowed to stay in Libya and African Union commission chairman Jean Ping told French radio on Thursday that while the continental body had identified several exile options, “he (Gaddafi) does not want to leave”. That, ultimately, could be the best outcome for countries such as Niger, Burkina Faso, Mali and Chad which all could have much to lose if Gaddafi showed up at their doorstep. “These countries are under enormous international pressure, with European cooperation agreements or defense accords at stake,” said Alain Antil of Paris-based think IFRI. “Despite the sympathy that still to an extent exists locally, there is a very keen appreciation in the Sahel region as elsewhere of the balance of power,” he added. While Gaddafi has exasperated many Africans over the years with efforts to wield influence from neighboring Chad down to further afield Liberia and Sierra Leone, some Africans seem disappointed that an exile offer has failed to materialize. “African leaders should be ashamed of themselves,” said Edouard Zida, a student in the Burkina capital Ouagadougou. “The West has it in for Gaddafi because he stood up to them. They should all be ready to welcome him in but they are afraid.” However Antil and others argue that leaders would likely conclude that their best interests lay in fostering good ties with Libya's new rulers and their Western backers. Mali has strong reasons to ensure it maintains friendly ties with Libya's new rulers, such as maintaining existing Libyan investment in agriculture, real estate and the energy distribution sector. Similar investments are at stake in Burkina Faso where Libyan money is behind a large commercial center, bank and major hotel in the capital Ouagadougou. Commercial interests aside, the security implications of Gaddafi remaining in the region could frighten many. While the Air mountains of Niger's desert north could be a hiding place for Gaddafi, the prospect of seeing him there with local Tuareg nomads whose anti-government rebellion he backed until recently will not thrill officials in the capital Niamey. Niger is moreover keen to avoid a return to its soil of thousands of Tuaregs who for years were employed in Gaddafi's army. One Tuareg leader told Reuters this week he estimated there were 16,000 non-Libyan Tuaregs in Gaddafi's armed forces at the outset of the conflict. To avoid a mass return of armed Tuaregs on its soil, it must ensure a reconciliation of sorts between them and Libya's new National Transitional Council (NTC), whose delegates are due in Niamey in coming days. Yet it is too soon to exclude further twists in the plot as four decades of Gaddafi's ties in the region gradually unwind. It is still unclear how Niger intends to proceed with Mansour, Gaddafi's security chief. Nigerien Justice Minister Marou Amadou said on Wednesday the arrival of more people close to the Gaddafi government could not be ruled out. “I don't think it is good to put pressure on Niger,” Samaila Ali, vice president of the foreign affairs commission at the Niger's national assembly told Reuters on Thursday. “They (international powers) should give us the chance to solve the issue in our own way,” he added. __
