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Gulf states to decide on ‘feasible' single currency target: Al-Sayyari
Published in The Saudi Gazette on 03 - 07 - 2008

Gulf Arab oil producers will decide on a “feasible” schedule for rolling out a single currency after reviewing a 2010 target for monetary union this year, Saudi Arabia's central bank governor said.
In an interview with Reuters, Hamad Saud Al-Sayyari reiterated the monetary union timeline has become very difficult due to high inflation and an unsustainable boom in the economy, but said regional commitment to the project is firm.
“It's a tight schedule, it's very difficult to meet. But that doesn't mean that the union is out - we've already agreed on the framework,” Sayyari said late on Monday in the Swiss city of Basel. “The original schedule to issue a currency, that is very difficult to meet. So we will review this schedule and decide on a schedule that is feasible ... because 2010 was supposed to be the date for issuing new banknotes.”
Any revisions to the timeline must be decided at the meeting between Gulf central bank governors and finance ministers in September and Gulf rulers in November, Sayyari said. “It is premature to say what's going to happen,” he said.
The project is facing hurdles as inflation spirals to record and near-record highs across the world's biggest oil-exporting region and the economies boom on a rapid rise in oil prices.
Oil prices soared above $143 a barrel on Monday - a seven-fold increase since 2002. Gulf governments have poured their oil windfall into developing infrastructure, real estate and industry - a key factor behind soaring inflation.
Apart from price rises, Sayyari said key economic variables which the region needs to meet before a union were either too high or too low because of an economic boom.
“There is a boom that influences various variables that are abnormal now,” he said.
The monetary union project was already pushed off the rails when Oman decided in 2006 it would not join and Kuwait broke ranks with its neighbors in 2007 and severed its dollar peg.
The recent surge in oil prices means there could be a big decline in the future and such volatility is unwelcome as it hits the economy, Sayyari said.
“It's not welcome because increases will be a seed for a substantial fall in the future. We would like stability and reasonable prices,” he said.
“This boom and bust is very unhealthy for the economy and we don't welcome volatility.”
Surging energy costs have led to increased money flows for Saudi Arabia, the world's biggest oil exporter, and as a result inflation has been driven up to a more than 30-month high above 10 percent earlier this year.
Sayyari said adjusting exchange rates would not solve the issue of high inflation, despite suggestions by some officials including Bank of England Governor Mervyn King that low interest rates in some countries that peg their currencies to the dollar are helping to fuel commodity price inflation.


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