Following the path of peaceful development is a strategic choice by the Chinese government and people. This choice will play an increasingly important role in safeguarding world safety and stability. Yang Honglin Chinese Ambassador to Saudi Arabia Now that China has become the world's second largest economy, at a time when the world is still suffering from a financial crisis and most developed countries are facing difficulties, the Chinese economy is attracting more and more global attention. Some people worry that as China's gross domestic product (GDP) per capita has topped US$4,000, it may fall into a “middle- income trap”, its economy will enter a conflict-prone period and economic growth will, therefore, stagnate. Others have expressed their concern over China's economic overheating, inflation and aging population. It's undeniable that with the rapid development of China's economy, the challenges and difficulties are increasing correspondingly. However, we have every reason to be fully confident of China's economic outlook. Above all, China has many special advantages in developing its economy. Stephen S. Roach, non-executive chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, pointed out that another 316 million people should move from the countryside to China's cities over the next 20 years. Such an unprecedented wave of urbanization provides solid support for infrastructure investment and commercial and residential construction activity. Chinese universities now graduate more than 1.5 million engineers and scientists annually, and China ranked fourth in 2009 in terms of international patent applications. The country is well on its way to a knowledge-based economy. Morgan Stanley's economic analyst Wang Qing said, China is a big country with the world's largest population, and imbalanced development in different areas and comparatively low GDP per capita could mean China still has enormous room for development. Moreover, China has drawn up its 12th Five-Year Plan, which is a blueprint for economic development and restructuring in the coming five years. The Plan envisages increasing domestic demand by switching economic growth to an integrated combination of consumption, investment and export as the main engine. It also highlights innovative restructuring by relying more on scientific and technological progress and management innovation for economic growth. According to the Plan, China will reduce the energy intensity of its economy by 16 percent and increase the share of energy from non-fossil-fuel sources to 11 percent in five years. Roach pointed out that the 12th Five-Year Plan could well be a strategic turning point – ushering in a shift from the highly successful producer model of the past 30 years to a flourishing consumer society. The international community is optimistic about China's economy with predictions being made that China will be the world's largest economy in 2050, or 2030, or even as early as 2019. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has predicted that in terms of purchasing power parity (PPP), China will be the world's largest economy in five years. However, when China becomes the world's largest economy is actually not so important. What is more important is the strong and positive message sent by the Chinese economy. According to the German newspaper Sunday World, most economists are optimistic that China can overcome current economic difficulties. China has always successfully controlled economic overheating without snuffing out growth. Wang Qing and other analysts at Morgan Stanley believe that although China's annual ten-percent growth cannot continue over a long period of time, a high growth rate of eight percent will be maintained until 2020. With the rapid development of China's economy, there are some who wonder whether China will seek world hegemony if it grows stronger. However, most people believe such concerns are entirely unnecessary. In terms of history, China has no culture or tradition of seeking expansion or hegemony. Throughout our history of thousands of years, benevolence and harmony are at the heart of our political and cultural tradition. Former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger has said that he sees Confucian roots in contemporary Chinese decision-making and upheavals. It means that rather than seeking imperial rule, China will be content as the regional Middle Kingdom. Francesco Sisci, Asia Editor of the Italian newspaper News, has pointed out that China has not fought an expansionist war for over a century. In fact, for over a century it has been fighting wars against enemies trying to take its territory. In terms of regional and world development, the rise and fall of some big powers in the world tells us: Expansionism leads nowhere; an arms race leads nowhere; seeking world domination leads nowhere; and peaceful development is the only right path. In Sisci's view, the lesson learned by China in the past 30 years is that it can rise only through peace, not through war. China needs peace for its development, without peace, its development could be put in jeopardy and the gains made in the past three decades could easily be forfeited. In terms of realism, China has neither the will nor the ability to seek expansion and hegemony. In his article in the Britain newspaper The Times, retired Britain lieutenant general Graeme Lamb said, China has about a fifth of the world's population but only 10 per cent of its arable land. The country will have to work hard just to feed itself and harder still to meet the rising expectations of its population. China's absolute priority remains economic growth and raising standards of living — not the reckless pursuit of military superiority. The prosperity and development of China is an important engine for world development. Over the years, China's economy has contributed over 10 percent to world economic growth and over 12 percent to international trade growth, creating millions of job opportunities for relevant countries and regions. At the end of 2010, an article in IMF's quarterly journal Finance and Development illustrated that a one percentage point shock to China's GDP growth is followed by a cumulative response in other countries' growth of 0.2 percentage point after three years and 0.4 percentage point after five years. Following the path of peaceful development is a strategic choice by the Chinese government and people. This choice will play an increasingly important role in safeguarding world safety and stability. __
