Still haunted by its own disastrous war in Afghanistan, Russia is tiptoeing back into Kabul's affairs ahead of a gradual withdrawal of NATO troops that could leave a dangerous power vacuum in what was once a traditional sphere of influence. Moscow has refused to send troops to the war, which is becomingly increasingly unpopular as it drags into its 10th year, but it has backed drug raids, and increased support for NATO and local forces. It has also showed interest in business deals as it vies to boost its clout in Afghanistan. Russia has welcomed Afghan President Hamid Karzai twice in the past 12 months, where he directly asked his Russian counterpart Dmitry Medvedev for help with security. Long indirectly involved in Afghan affairs through supporting foreign operations, Russia is now pursuing “independent engagement”, said Vanda Felbab-Brown, an expert on Afghanistan and fellow at the Brookings Institution. “Russia's primary objective is to avoid having civil war, instability and leakages into Central Asia and into Russia itself,” Felbab-Brown told Reuters from Washington. Moscow has also been courting Pakistan, seen as instrumental to peace plans in Afghanistan. Russia agreed last year to expand on a transit deal to allow NATO to take armored vehicles through its territory. It had already allowed the military alliance to ship food and fuel. An agreement to supply the United States with 21 military helicopters is also expected to be completed by year-end. “Russia certainly does not want America to remain in the region,” said Fyodor Lukyanov, editor of the journal Russia in Global Affairs. “At the same time, there is also the concern that the US departure, particularly a swift one, will make the situation much more difficult”. Moscow also hopes to be involved in several economic projects, including a proposed gas pipeline and hydroelectric power facilities in Kabul. Russia has said it would rebuild Soviet-era infrastructure, which it built in the 1950s-1970s, if the international community footed the bill. Despite escalating violence, Washington and NATO have pledged to begin a gradual security transition from July as part of a plan that will see all foreign combat troops leave Afghanistan by the end of 2014. Experts say the first transition phase — to begin in seven areas — is more about symbolism than substance, but agree the handover is still crucial to determining the readiness of Afghan forces. Violence last year hit its worst levels since US-backed Afghan forces overthrew the Taliban government in late 2001, but Washington and its allies have backed Karzai's peace plan, which includes negotiations with Taliban-led insurgents. However, there is still little idea how that plan will work and the likelihood of more political uncertainty looms. Still wary of a country at the heart of the “Great Game” — the historic rivalry between Britain and Russia during the 19th and 20th centuries —, Moscow is now also driven by its fear of growing Islamism. Russia is afraid the troop drawdown will allow militants to filter into the oil and gas-producing mainly Muslim countries of ex-Soviet Central Asia. Last month the head of a Russia-dominated regional security bloc, the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), warned member states that Afghan insurgent activity was already spreading to the bordering Central Asian countries. “This is one of the main destabilizing factors presenting a real threat to collective security in the Central Asian region,” the CSTO's Nikolai Bordyuzha said in Moscow. Moscow is so alarmed, security sources and analysts say, that it is in talks with Tajikistan — whose southern border with Afghanistan is long and porous — to send up to 3,000 Russian border guards to protect the country from a spillover of violence. Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan also border Afghanistan. “It is possible we could see a resurgence of the Taliban, and the Islamist movements in Central Asia might be emboldened by this,” said Gemma Ferst from the London-based Eurasia Group.
