The former director of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Dr. Mohammed El-Baradei, has reintroduced the issue of the future of the regime in Egypt and brought it to the forefront. This came through a statement on Thursday in which he announced he had accepted the invitation by political and other figures to run for president in 2011. However, he linked his candidacy to the meeting of five conditions, as expressed in his statement, and affirmed that he would not run before they are met. Thus, we can now say with certainty that the man will not be among those competing for the presidential seat, not only because the conditions that El-Baradei put forward will be difficult to implement, or that the ruling National Democratic Party will not heed them, but also because a segment of those who called on El-Baradei to run based their invitation on their confidence that El-Baradei's conditions would be met. Thus, the man has set the cart before the horse and obstructed the process of his candidacy before it happened, irrespective of the campaign that targeted him, which was expected, as El-Baradei asked for what all opposition political forces have been demanding and struggling for over a period of years. These same forces invited him to become a candidate, but are unable to carry out what they want, or what he wants. El-Baradei set down the following conditions: the creation of an independent and neutral national committee to organize the elections, full judicial oversight over this committee and the polling process, and international observers from the United Nations to monitor the various stages of the elections and guarantee that it goes smoothly. He also stipulated that all Egyptians be guaranteed the right to run, which means abolishing all of the constraints on allowing all citizens to compete in the elections. Finally, he demanded the right to review the names on voter lists. We can acknowledge that El-Baradei's conditions constitute a set of rights that opposition political forces, and even some in the NDP itself, have long called for. However, the reality indicates that it will be impossible to achieve them in the time remaining before the presidential election. Most of them are related to provisions of the Constitution, and some require the amendment of laws on political rights; this process will require, in addition to the political will, lengthy and complicated measures. Thus, questions remain: Did El-Baradei believe that the ruling regime would immediately respond to his conditions and begin measures that would guarantee their implementation, so that he can run? Did the man want to embarrass the regime and show that it rejected his candidacy? If no one meets El-Baradei's conditions (and this is certain), will the man fight in the future to achieve these conditions on the ground, so that those who want to run in the future can benefit? Or will he retreat and express his sadness that his candidacy was rejected? El-Baradei did not define his political future in the event the regime refuses to meet his conditions. However, it is understood from his statement that he will not run if the conditions that he has called for are not met. One person noted after reading El-Baradei's statement: “If the conditions are met before the elections, and El-Baradei wins, and becomes the president of Egypt, what will he do and what will he offer to the people?!” The person believed that it would have better for El-Baradei to politely decline the offer by those calling on him to run, based on his objection to the current circumstances of elections, and the idea that they will not produce a president who wins in free and fair elections, where candidates enjoy equal opportunities. Generally speaking, El-Baradei's statement was tantamount to the dropping of a stone in a lake whose waters have been choppy for a while, in order to make them even choppier. Certainly, the debate over the regime's future will continue, until the official candidacy period begins. The NDP will likely adopt some constitutional and legal amendments to allow public figures to run. However, it is certain that these amendments will not meet the minimum requirements as set down by El-Baradei or others. Instead, they will be limited to reducing the constraints on candidacy for figures from the political parties, or some independents; however, the picture will remain incomplete until parliamentary elections, which are scheduled for next fall. The results of this election will reveal the balance of power on the Egyptian political scene, and the NDP's willingness to either accept participation by others in competing for the presidency, or being content with trying to change the form of the process, without affecting the content.
