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Egypt and the Costly Duel
Published in AL HAYAT on 25 - 07 - 2013

It is an extraordinary scene that cannot be interpreted using the tools of the present century: The defense minister and commander of the army calling on the people to protest, and requesting from them "a mandate and an order to end violence and terrorism."
It is clear that Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Sisi is relying on the popularity made possible by the 30 June uprising. He is also counting on the traditional popularity of the Egyptian army and its deep roots in society, and banking on the deep fears among the Egyptians over the developments of the past few days, from Cairo all the way to the Sinai.
Sisi did not forget to allude to the fact that "the legitimacy granted by the people through the ballots can be withdrawn and rejected," which he said should be respected. He openly declared willingness to hold elections under international supervision, and said, "We want elections attested to by the whole world." Sisi then slammed the door on the hopes of the supporters of ‘former President' Mohamed Morsi, when he unequivocally confirmed that there would be no going back on what happened on June 30.
It is no simple thing for the commander of the army to call on "all honest Egyptians" to take to the streets tomorrow, Friday, to grant him a mandate. Sisi wants this mandate to come from the street, from the millions who came out on June 30, giving cover to the decision to impeach Morsi. But simply put, this means that masses will be protesting against masses, and anti-brotherhood Egyptians will be demonstrating against pro-Brotherhood Egyptians.
Sisi is therefore betting that the Egyptians will prove tomorrow that the size of the popular legitimacy which rejects the Brotherhood is many times the size of the group's electoral legitimacy.
Since the impeachment of the ‘Brotherhood president' Mohamed Morsi, the supporters of the group have been stationed in the street under the slogan of "overthrowing the coup." Clearly, they have made a firm decision to prevent the new administration from normalizing the situation in the Egyptian street. They have decided to undermine the new administration, with all the security and economic implications this may have.
The Brotherhood has decided to disallow ‘Sisi's coup' from catching its breath. So perhaps it was for this reason that the man made his recent appearance, seeking the help of the people. The purpose of his appearance was to say to local and foreign audiences that the Brotherhood has a problem not with the army, but with the majority of the Egyptian people, and that what the army is doing does not go beyond respecting the will of the majority and preventing the country from sliding towards the abyss.
Egypt will hold its breath while it waits for tomorrow's duel in the streets and the public squares. Most likely, Egypt will also hold its breath in the days after. What if the masses clash, and what if the killings, of which we saw a sample in the past few days, escalate? What if the infighting expands and spreads beyond their current theaters? What will the army do after gambling all its popular currency it has on the test? Will it declare a state of emergency, and if so, then what comes after? What if the country slides into a bloodbath and an open-ended civil war? What will remain then of the transitional period and what about Egypt's reputation abroad?
The most dangerous confrontations are those where backing down is not possible. Indeed, it is not easy for the heirs of Hassan al-Banna and Sayyid Qutb to accept a defeat of this magnitude, after the office of the Brotherhood's Supreme Guide had a taste of power. What will the Guide tell the Brotherhood in Egypt and elsewhere? Their loss would not affect them alone. Others will lose along with them, in Gaza, Jordan, Tunisia, Syria, and beyond. The image of the ‘Muslim Brotherhood Spring' will be shaken violently, and the so-called Turkish model will join the list of medicines whose shelf lives have expired.
Since Hosni Mubarak was toppled, Egypt has been living to the tune of surprises, uprisings, and major gambles. The Brotherhood made a gamble by running in the presidential race, when they took control of the palace, and also when they lost the palace.
The opposition made a gamble when it decided to shorten Morsi's term using a tsunami of protesters. The army made a gamble when it responded to the crowded public squares. Those who made June 30 happen cannot back down. The army cannot back down either.
Sisi has pushed the battle to its peak. From now until tomorrow evening, he will keep checking his watch. Another man who must constantly check his watch is the Supreme Guide Mohamed Badie. Going ahead with the gamble might turn a bitter defeat into a major catastrophe. No doubt, Egypt is heading for a costly duel.


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