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Fear for Lebanon
Published in AL HAYAT on 10 - 07 - 2013

The criminal explosion that took place on Tuesday in the southern suburbs of Beirut requires urgent national vigilance by all political groups in the country, to save it from the repercussions of the disastrous situation in Syria and the transfer of the struggle between the Syrian regime and its people to Lebanon. The biggest mistake is that Hezbollah continues to take part in the fighting in Syria, because it will bring a calamity to Lebanon and increase Sunni-Shiite tension, which is becoming more dangerous every day. Foreign visitors to Lebanon say that no one wants a civil war. The tension and hatred in the country, which is divided politically, does not need much to bring about such a catastrophe, unless there is true vigilance by everyone in order to exit these deteriorating conditions. There is also growing institutional paralysis, as a result of the calculations by the political class, which put its interests above those of a people who have become fed up with this political class' useless divisions, tension and exchanging of curses. This policy, with the region on fire from Syria to Egypt and Iraq, requires putting an end to this policy, which is rejected, of managing the country.
As part of this illogical management of Lebanon's affairs, there was a somewhat surreal news conference recently by the caretaker minister of energy, Gebran Bassil. Bassil spoke about contracts and schedules that should be set down for natural gas exploration in Lebanon. He is a minister in a government that resigned, because of dissatisfaction by Hezbollah and its ally, General Michel Aoun, about decisions that Najib Mikati, the prime minister, wanted to carry out. After Mikati resigned and become a caretaker prime minister, because of the blocking of the government by Hezbollah and Aoun, Bassil is going about his business as if nothing has changed. He holds a news conference to ask for an extraordinary session of the Cabinet to award gas contracts to international companies, just as he continues to appoint employees at Electricite du Liban and the Qadisha Valley electricity company, as if nothing has changed, and as if there is no prime minister-designate, trying to form a government. The question today is: Why was Mikati's government forced to resign and the elections blocked, with Hezbollah behind it, and the extension of the term of Brig. Gen. Ashraf Rifi of the Internal Security Forces rejected? In the same context, Aoun asked his son-in-law Basil to assign a date for an extraordinary session to appoint a new commander of the army.
Lebanon certainly needs to award contracts to international firms for gas drilling, to benefit from these revenues, and it certainly should not keep the commander of the army's post vacant. But today it should be asked, as the prime minister-designate is unable to form a government: Why, then, was Mikati forced to resign and the Cabinet paralyzed, while unilateral decisions are taken by Aoun and his son-in-law to demand extraordinary sessions of a government that has resigned, as if nothing has happened? Agreeing to convene extraordinary sessions under these circumstances will cement the control by Hezbollah and its allies over political decision-making and prevent the formation of a new government, with ongoing efforts to block the attempts by the prime minister-designate. It is the best policy for someone who wants to take decisions without being held accountable. As long as things remain like this, why move quickly to agree to the formation of a new government? An institutional vacuum in Lebanon is dangerous for the country, its stability and its economy. Those who want to see good come to Lebanon do not ask only for extraordinary sessions to achieve personal and private political interests and aspirations. They should not block decisions that are in the interest of the country, as they did under Mikati, such as extending Rifi's term, which is what caused the fall of the government, putting the country's security in doubt.
Lebanon is in a dangerous situation because of the Syrian war and its repercussions, and Hezbollah's participation in fighting alongside the Syrian regime, which is killing its people. Sunni-Shiite tension is growing and the economy is in constant retreat because of political and security conditions. This requires those demanding extraordinary sessions of the caretaker government to work instead to avoid a vacuum, and form a government of salvation for the country, instead of salvation for their private interests. The Lebanese have become tired of the political class, which has failed to build a Lebanon that is pluralistic and prosperous, with true democracy. Hezbollah's participation in the fighting in Syria exposed everything the party claimed about being a resistance party, and that its weapons were aimed at Israel. It is fighting for Iran in Syria to resist the Syrian people, who have been displaced by their regime's fighting and its president's insistence on remaining. Many of them have been forced to seek refuge in Lebanon, and this has burdened the economy and the local labor market. If the demands of Aoun and his team in the government are met, to hold an extraordinary session of a caretaker government, why not form a new government? The best thing is for the country to retain a caretaker government, with an extraordinary session in which decisions are taken by the groups dominating the country, until a new president is elected next year, and also after Hezbollah and its ally Aoun and its government team take control over fundamentally-important decisions, via extraordinary Cabinet sessions. The postponement of the parliamentary elections and the prolonged caretaker Cabinet, ruling on an exceptional basis to meet the special interests of one group, along with Hezbollah's continuing battle in Syria against the Syrian people, to support a regime that uses its army, planes and tanks to liquidate its people in cities – this raises the question about Lebanon's future, as a large portion of the Shiites support Hezbollah.
The danger for Lebanon is growing under such circumstances. The rising Sunni-Shiite tension is a disaster for the country. The Salafist Ahmad al-Assir and his followers, and the participation by Hezbollah in fighting in Syria, and some government members' calculations in order to reap personal benefits – they are all elements of destabilization of a country that is on the edge of the precipice, along with its security, because of a political class that is doing harm to the Lebanese people.


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