Whenever the Syrian political and military opposition overcomes an obstacle, it immediately faces numerous others. As though the chemical weapons file which has prevented and is still preventing an international understanding or consensus over the toppling of the regime was not enough, Al-Qaeda's file was wide open. And there is no point in arguing or attempting to maneuver around what was said by Abu Omar al-Baghdadi and the response he received from by Abu Muhammad al-Julani, considering that whether the Syrian wing of the organization follows its Iraqi counterpart or renews its allegiance to the main organization, there is no difference on the ideological level or at the level of military action. In addition to these two thorny files, political blocs, activists and military brigades on the internal scene, as well as the group of Alawites who held a meeting in Cairo a few days ago, opened the file of the political opposition abroad, calling on the Coalition to expand and include more representatives from civil, liberal and secular movements, as well as wings operating on Syrian soil. The same is being expressed by the international community, which is stressing the necessity of addressing and reassuring the minorities. These demands will increase after Al-Nusra publicly presented its credentials to Dr. Ayman al-Zawahiri and raised the banner of the Islamic State or the Caliphate in Greater Syria. Three files are likely to extend the crisis, along with the regime's stay in power, the last of which is the exposing by Al-Nusra Front of its true colors. This has confused the opposition as much as it offered valuable tools and influential weapons to be used by the regime in confronting all the pressures calling on it to adopt a political solution in preparation for its departure. At this level, it did not hesitate to ask the United Nations to add the Front on the "unified list of organizations and entities linked to Al-Qaeda, as per Security Council Resolution 1268". And it is no secret that the opposition tried to defend the Front after the United States included it on the terrorism list, while many Free Army brigades did not deny their coordination with it on many fronts and positions. Al-Julani did not pledge allegiance to al-Zawahiri, but rather renewed this pledge. Hence, he tried for a long time to conceal the cloak he was wearing, probably to avoid frightening the Syrians who are not oblivious to what Al-Zarqawi's organization did in the neighboring Iraq a few years back. He thus wanted to avert the mistakes committed by the organization in Iraq, while the leaders of the National Council and head of the Coalition Moaz al-Khatib should have shown more patience in opposing the American stand towards the Front. Indeed, they were aware of the fact that Ambassador Robert Ford knew a lot about it, considering that he was part of the American team which witnessed the increase of the number of American troops during the last few days of President George Bush to deter Al-Qaeda. Moreover, he was essential in the building of the Awakening Councils which confronted the organization in Iraq. Also, the Syrians know, just like Ambassador Ford knows, that most of the leaders of Al-Nusra were in Iraq during Al-Zarqawi's days, and that the Syrian regime had mechanisms, bodies and databases which facilitated the arrival of large numbers of recruits from North Africa, the Arab Peninsula and other locations to fight the Americans. And those knowledgeable about the Front's status today are saying that its main leaders are multinationals, but that its members are mostly composed of Syrians. This is why Washington is using all possible arguments to justify its refusal to arm the opposition, considering that far away from politics, international considerations and intertwining relations with Russia, no American administration can risk taking a decision that would lead to the arming of the opposition, or even the Free Army, if some of this Army's brigades are coordinating and dealing with Al-Nusra. Indeed, any such decision would simply constitute a lethal legal and political violation. And while the Arab summit in Doha provided the required legitimacy to arm the factions that are fighting on the ground, the political and military opposition should not take its time in processing Al-Nusra's surprise and its suspicious timing. It should quickly overcome the embarrassment that was caused and clearly distance itself from Al-Qaeda. It might even be required to reconsider the Coalition's structure, so that it does not remain under the control of the Islamic forces, as it is believed by the United States and its European partner. If this is not done, the old tune which was used as a pretext by Syria's Friends since the establishment of the National Alliance and then the Coalition might reemerge. What is required in parallel is to unify all the factions and brigades of the Free Army under one command, so that everything goes to this command and not to specific factions operating under the banner of this or that force that is part of the Coalition. The bomb that was detonated by Al-Nusra Front will lead the file of the Free Army's arming, or that of its "moderate" brigades, back to square one. Moreover, it will cause sideline battles, especially since Arab powers will not hesitate to provide some brigades with the necessary equipment and weapons. For their part, neither Jordan will be reassured by the presence of Jihadists on its border, nor will Israel be reassured by their replacement of the regular army on the other side of the Golan. This would explain the eruption of the confrontations along most of the fronts in Daraa among other provinces in the Syrian South, knowing that the few coming days might witness the use of unmanned drones to deal with those Jihadists, just as it is already taking place in Yemen, Pakistan and Afghanistan among other places! Al-Nusra's bomb placed, before those seeking the arrangement of the post-Bashar al-Assad phase and those fearing this development, yet another file which will obstruct any consensus over the provision of exits to facilitate his departure and further frighten those reluctant. Had the Front made its announcement a few days earlier, Russian President Vladimir Putin might not have proposed the discontinuation of the dispatch of weapons to all the fighting sides in Syria! The chemical weapons file was and still is the main reason behind the American-Russian understanding and was undoubtedly the main reason behind the revival of the heat at the level of the relations between Tel Aviv and Ankara. Indeed, most Israeli diplomatic, media and political circles attributed Benjamin Netanyahu's decision to apologize to Recep Tayyip Erdogan for the Marmara Ship incident to concerns over the future of these weapons. For their part, and during their last meeting in London, the G8 foreign ministers did not omit the renewal of the warning against the use of chemical weapons, as such an action will provoke strict international reactions, stressing the necessity of protecting the locations in which these weapons are stored. Throughout the last few weeks, the Coalition was counting on Arab-French-British armament to change the balance of powers on the ground. Today, it must work fast to contain the repercussions of the political explosion caused by Al-Nusra, following its bloody explosions. Indeed, those insisting on the political solution, or rather the implementation of the Geneva plan and the stay of Lakhdar Brahimi – i.e. Moscow and Washington – will grow more persistent at the level of their call for the establishment of a transitional government, which would pave the way before al-Assad's departure following the sustainment of the state institutions and the reassurance of all the social components. However, this constitutes a challenge to the opposition, and has likely pushed some of its components to reconsider a dialogue initiative similar to the one proposed by Moaz al-Khatib, who presented his pending resignation, in order to embarrass the regime which has still not shown any willingness to engage in such dialogue. This is simply due to the fact that it has been and still is wagering on the fate of the chemical file, but also on the fate of the Al-Qaeda file, not to mention the cover provided for it by the slogan it is raising regarding the protection of the minorities, at the head of which are the Alawites. There is no doubt that a year ago, the Syrian political and military opposition was doing much better than it is today. Therefore, it should redo its calculations to draw up a new strategy, far away from any hope of seeing Russia changing its position, considering that it will not, or Iran's changing of its attitude based on the turn carried out by its Lebanese ally which became engaged in the consensus over the appointment of a figure from the March 14 forces to form a new government. The truce in Beirut was imposed by purely Lebanese circumstances and balances. And in the Islamic Republic, the heated presidential campaign is pushing the Guide and the command to focus on the battle and unify the ranks behind the regime and the revolution, in light of the cracks provoked by Ahmadinejad's term since the 2009 elections, what preceded and what followed them. There is no doubt that the dose offered by Al-Nusra to the regime and all those insisting on the political solution, and the Geneva plan will heighten the existing defiance between the oppositionists abroad and on the domestic arena. After today, the latter will have to face the fait accompli imposed on them by the Front, either by acting under its control, or by seeking ways to avoid it and avoid its conflicts with the remaining armed factions. It is as though the Syrians did not have enough on their hands with the regime's machine that turned their cities and villages to rubble and drowned them deeper in the swamp of denominational war. Did they not see what Al-Zarqawi's friends did in Iraq in the middle of last decade? The Coalition's task and that of Syria's Friends is to avoid pushing the people on the domestic arena to despair, thus surrendering to either the regime or to Al-Nusra.
