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Syria and its Mini-States: Is the American Carrot Fictive?
Published in AL HAYAT on 04 - 04 - 2013

Following the kidnappings and assassinations, the arrests and burning, harassment and rape have become a regular occurrence in the Arab spring states. And regardless of whether the smothering of the revolutions by shifting them away from their courses and drowning them in civil wars is the goal of the remnants alone – i.e. the orphans of the tyrannical regimes – or is also the goal of new opposition movements, hope is still retreating from Libya to Tunisia, Egypt and Yemen. Moreover, everyone is now part of the fueling of anarchy, while forgetting the citizens in whose name the regimes were toppled.
In Syria, the daily killings and slaughters have also become a regular occurrence, in addition to the fleeing of the refugees to the two small neighbors: Lebanon and Jordan. The chaos of the massacre, or the Syrian war, has become common, unless we believe what is being said about an Arab-Western concern over the possibility of seeing Syria's division and dismantling into mini-states.
Kidnapping and rape are ongoing in the countries witnessing war, as well as in the countries of the Arab spring. In Muizz' Cairo, the Muslim Brotherhood regime is calling on the Egyptians to enjoy freedom of expression as one of the most important accomplishments of the revolution. But after bliss, the hell inside the prisons does not matter! The call was open to all the citizens, as though freedom of speech – despite all the clashes with the police, the smoke and fires – replaces the running of factories, the employment of the youth and the feeding of millions of families!
From Damascus, the beating heart of pan-Arabism, an open call was made upon all the Syrians to show patience towards the killing of a little less than 100,000 people, as long as the country is engaged in a survival war against the "terrorists." The call is thus open to the killing of tens of thousands of others to salvage Syria through devastation, under the sponsorship of the Iranian witness in the heart of pan-Arabism.
American Secretary of State John Kerry, who is returning to Turkey, will not go back to the region to check on the status of the Arab spring or discuss with the youth the outcome of the revolutionaries or democracies they produced with some level of American consent – especially in Egypt – even if one were to exclude the conspiracy theory or Washington's collaboration with the MB authority. But if Kerry is not returning to Istanbul to check on the persistence of the Syrian opposition forces, will he carry a plan to arm its factions with an annex differentiating between the good and the bad? Or will he propose a scenario for the hosting of massive numbers of refugees from wars which are usually accompanied by wide-scale cleansing campaigns?
Clearly, the regime's new division of the provinces points to yet another chapter of the war, just like the information talking about the presence of non-Syrian troops inside the capital. And between the hit and run operations on the ground, and the oppositionists' escalation of the fighting, Washington was able to talk about a Russian flight or Kremlin's recanting of the position on which it had been insisting in interpreting the Geneva Declaration. Once again, the insistence on a political solution to the tragedy appears to be futile, at a time when the Americans are growing increasingly ambiguous and the French are drowning even further in their political schizophrenia. Indeed, they support the altering of the balance of power between the Syrian regime and the Free Army, recognize that arming the opposition would allow this change, but still reject it!
But is Washington hiding some sort of a surprise for Damascus, at a time when the regime is preparing to deter the invasion? What would push Jordan to proclaim a portion of its territories as a devastated area, if this is not a war of another kind or a repetition of the predicament endured by Iraq's Kurds who fled to Turkey to escape Saddam Hussein's attacks following the Kuwait liberation war?
Some knowledgeable figures believe that the Damascus battle is getting closer, the more the opposition forces manage to besiege key regime positions in Daraa and its Rif. In the meantime, this regime's lifeline is unchanged, since it still enjoys Russia's support and benefits from Iran's ongoing efforts to save it. But Iran probably sent a signal saying it cannot wait for long, seeing how Damascus is subjected to division and the American administration favors the tug of war over the carrot of the comprehensive deal wanted by Tehran.
As for the Israeli threats to both the Syrian regime and revolutionaries in the Golan, and to Hamas and the Palestinians in Gaza, they go in line with Washington's wager on the collapse of alliances, regimes, entities and states and the disintegration of the Arab spring. Israel did not conceal its joy over the possible division of Syria into Alawi, Sunni and Kurdish mini-states, considering that this constitutes a security guarantee for it, at least during the next twenty years.
From Cairo to Damascus, and from Tripoli to Sana'a, the collapse of the walls of fear is no longer sparing anyone from an unknown future that is stronger than everyone.


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