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Kerry at the GCC
Published in AL HAYAT on 03 - 03 - 2013

The first tour by US Secretary of State John Kerry after having assumed his post culminates in meetings with Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) ministers in Riyadh. It seems clear that Kerry's choice of the Middle East and its issues in his first movement on the international scene means revitalizing American policy in this part of the world, after neglect that has lasted throughout President Barack Obama's first term in office. The countries of the GCC may well be among those in the region who have felt the absence of a US role the most – or more accurately the absence of responsiveness by the US to what they hope for from a strategic ally and essential partner.
Kerry's meeting with his GCC counterparts will represent an occasion to renew the balance sheet of US-GCC relations, and the extent to which the nature of such relations corresponds to Gulf interests as set by the countries of the GCC.
Setting aside the energy issue, for falling outside the scope of any discussion between the two sides at the moment, as the GCC side remains committed to ensuring supplies and the American side to guaranteeing the security of such supplies, the stances expressed by Kerry during his tour of Europe, through Turkey and Egypt, did not meet with Gulf concerns, especially on the three issues most sensitive for the GCC, namely Palestine, Syria and Iran.
The first of the three was set aside for President Obama's visit to Israel and the Palestinian territories – this at a time when the United States has not formed any new ideas that could restart the process towards the two-state solution, a process that was buried by Netanyahu without Washington being able to deter him. And Kerry will most likely have nothing to reassure the Gulf Arabs to the fact that his country wishes to play the role required of it as sponsor of the peace process to provide the conditions needed for the establishment of the two states.
Yet what worries the Gulf Arabs in a direct way at the moment is the direction taken by developments in Syria, after the failure of the international community to put a stop to the killing. Indeed, on the one hand, the armed opposition has not provided, despite calls and preparations from the Gulf, the means to achieve a certain extent of balance of military power on the field with the regime. And on the other, the rift is widening of the sectarian conflict that threatens those countries in the region characterized by a social makeup of diverse confessional strands, and this is increasingly allowing for interference from Iran.
So far, there has been no indication from the US Administration, nor from Kerry's talks with European partners and with the Syrian opposition, that there are new means of pressure for Washington to drive forward with, whether on the field or in order to alter the equation on the international scene so as to allow for imposing a political solution through the Security Council. And even if some enthusiastic statements have been made, the decision remains that of the White House and of Obama, who seems to be clinging to what he ended his first term with: not allowing the opposition to be armed.
There remains the issue that is most controversial, namely that of Iran, which arouses in the countries of the GCC a great deal of apprehension and fears, in connection to the way the United States has been dealing with it. Indeed, on the one hand, the view inside the GCC is that the policy of hastening the US withdrawal from Iraq, to which Obama subscribes, has allowed Iran to fill the vacuum, and has imposed internal Iraqi arrangements at the expense of the country's Sunni constituents. With its influence having spread in Iraq, direct interference by Iran has increased in GCC countries and in Yemen, without the US Administration showing any concern for such Gulf sensitivity with regard to the role played by the US.
On the other, the countries of the GCC want real guarantees concerning the Iranian nuclear issue – not just concerning the military aspect of it, but also concerning the security of Iranian nuclear facilities close to the Gulf. And if the 5+1 negotiations are still facing obstacles at the start, and Tehran still clings to not allowing its suspected facilities to be inspected, growing concern in the Gulf becomes understandable. Does Kerry then hold anything that would reassure the Gulf Arabs regarding all the sources of their concern about American policy in the region?


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