There is growing interest in the development and production of unconventional oils. Most observers expect the latter to eventually dominate the global petroleum industry. Some even predict that U.S. policies towards the Arabian Gulf would shift because North America is set to become energy-independent in the near future, and even a net exporter of oil and gas. The most important new unconventional types of oil include: Tar sands: These have become the subject of growing interest in recent years. Tar sands contain mixtures of sand, clay, and water, saturated with bitumen. Global reserves of oil locked in tar sands are estimated to stand at about 177 million barrels, 70 percent in Canada, and the rest in the U.S., Russia and Kazakhstan. Heavy oil and extra heavy oil: These resemble tar sands. Despite the difficulty of transporting them, they are considered among the unconventional oils that will be important over the long term. The largest reserves of the second type are located in the Orinoco field in Venezuela. Methane in coal beds: It is extracted by drilling 100-150 meters underground in coal beds. This kind of production is very common in Australia. Gas to Liquids (GTL): Qatar has inched ahead of the rest of the world in this industry. GTL is a process where gas is refined to extract petroleum products (gasoline and diesel for example), with very low concentrations of carbon dioxide, rendering these products compliant with strict environmental specifications. GTL requires the availability of large reserves of gas, but production remains limited. Shale oil and gas: These are considered some of the most important unconventional sources, given the availability of large reserves, particularly in the U.S. The technology for extracting shale petroleum has been around since the 1940s, but it has become possible to produce it commercially at a reasonable cost (around US$ 57 per barrel) only around two years ago. It is also important to note that this commercial success was achieved in the U.S., the world's top consumer and importer of energy, which carries many major implications. Indeed, instead of continuing to import crude oil and natural gas, the U.S. is now close to achieving an old dream, one that it had since the October War and the Arab oil embargo of 1973, namely energy independence and dispensing with importing crude, especially from the Arabian Gulf countries. Furthermore, discoveries made in the past two years indicate that there are mega shale fields in the U.S., which may pave the way for exporting liquefied gas in particular. Shale petroleum is produced by using water under pressure mixed with sand and chemicals to fracture the rocks hundreds of meters below ground. The reason this industry has been successful is the technological breakthroughs in seismic surveying, allowing the exploration of fields buried deep underground and which may contain hydrocarbons; in addition to ‘fracking' technology to fracture rocks hundreds of meters below the surface, where fissures can be opened and expanded for oil and gas to flow through them into production wells. These modern techniques pushed the industry forward. Yet the latter faces several obstacles, including its high usage of water (thousands of gallons per well), and chemicals dissolved in it, which include carcinogens, in addition to the possibility of the toxic water leaking into nearby potable water aquifers after being used in fracturing rocks, with the subsequent backlash from civil society organizations. Moreover, the use of this fuel in the global petroleum industry remains extremely limited. However, it has very promising prospects over the coming two decades, particularly for shale oil and gas, given the technological advancements made in these fields, and the significant discoveries in North America – especially in the U.S. But what is the impact of the availability of these alternative sources of hydrocarbons on U.S. policy in the Middle East? The majority of American observers agree that U.S. energy independence would mean reduced strategic significance for the Arabian Gulf region for the U.S. But renowned strategic analyst Anthony Cordesman disagrees, and continues to stress the importance of Arab oil even in the event U.S. self-sufficiency is achieved in energy. Cordesman mentions in this regard that oil prices are set globally, and in the event of a war in the Gulf that impacts global supply, this will quickly push world oil prices, including U.S. prices, up, with negative impact on the world economy. This would also hurt the allies of the U.S. in Europe and Asia (especially Japan). Cordesman goes on to say that any jolt in the Asian markets in particular, will affect the U.S. balance of payments, since the United States imports billions of dollars annually in Asian goods, and since this production as a whole depends on Gulf oil. In addition, things may evolve along different paths and in different methods, including the fact that unconventional petroleum may create a new situation for the Arab petroleum industry. Indeed, new sources will not necessarily reduce the need for Arab oil, but will most definitely lead to competition in the markets and prices with the new oil and gas sources. To be sure, the global oil industry will not forgo of the massive Arab oil reserves, which will remain, along with Arab productive capacity, a safety valve for the global oil industry. Finally, the rush for producing unconventional petroleum is expected to drive prices up, because it costs more to produce compared to conventional petroleum. This added cost means higher prices for crude oil. So why is there so much keenness on producing unconventional petroleum then? Well, the answer is that the major industrialized countries, particularly the U.S., are seeking to achieve energy independence at any price possible. It is also likely that the U.S. will ask its European and Asian allies to contribute more, both financially and militarily, to maintain the security of the Gulf. *. Mr. Khadduri is a consultant for MEES Oil & Gas (MeesEnergy)
