Since March 2011, I have been asking every Arab or foreign official and expert I meet: Will the Syrian regime fall? And if so then: When? Well, I no longer ask whether the regime will fall. It has dug its own grave, and I was shocked by every wrong decision it has made along the road. No; my question now is this: When will the regime fall? And the answers I hear include, two weeks, two months or in a year. No one knows for sure. The regime has many strong points on its side. Indeed, its supporters are defending themselves, and not just Bashar al-Assad. There is also ongoing support from Iran coming through Iraq, because the fall of the regime in Damascus would leave the ayatollahs in Qom without a single ally in the region. I wish here that Hezbollah would dissociate itself from the regime, for the sake of the resistance against Israel. I asked Syrian dissidents I met in Cairo and Dubai about the situation, and they all emphasized the importance of the battle taking place in Damascus. One friend among them reminded me that he had told me a month earlier that the armed opposition, which is operating with the help of Turkey and several Arab countries, has decided to focus on Damascus because its fall would mean the collapse of the regime. The dissidents said that many armed brigades are operating in and around Damascus, including the Damascus Countryside Brigades; the Mothers of the Believers Brigades; and the Douma Martyrs Brigades, along with other fundamentalist groups and al Qaeda-linked terrorist factions. According to them, while the regime is still in control of Damascus airport, the airport road from the capital is being cut by the militants from time to time. I did not hear anything convincing about the Syrian situation after the fall of the regime. Some of the dissidents acknowledged that there is no coalition of the opposition in place that can deliver the country to safety. Nevertheless, the group that will control the capital after the fall of the regime may be able to form an interim government. I also asked about the chemical weapons that are in the possession of the regime, and everyone confirmed their existence. The dissidents included a former member of the military who is well informed about the topic. He ruled out the possibility that the regime may use these weapons, because the rockets it has in its arsenal do not hit their target alone, but also hit the surrounding area where the chemical weapons will diffuse and kill all those exposed to them. The Western media has run stories about the types of chemical weapons that the regime in Syria has, which include mustard gas, Sarin nerve gas, VX gas and Tabun Gas. But all the dissidents I spoke with said that it is unlikely for the regime to use the weaponized gas against its people. However, one former military officer spoke about the possibility of the regime using gas against Israel as one last act of desperation, like Saddam Hussein did near the end of the Second Gulf War. NATO wants to deploy missiles in Turkey to guard against this possibility. Meanwhile, the U.S. administration is cooperating with Israel to prepare defenses, and is now talking about the threat of chemical weapons falling into the hands of the rebels after warning against the danger of them being used by the regime. Personally, I believe it unlikely that the chemical weapons will be used within Syria or against Israel, because that would shut the last remaining door, or window, for the president to leave Syria. Indeed, if he decides today to leave, he will find that there is willingness to host him with his family by Russia, Romania and Iran, and perhaps even Dubai. But he will not be received if he used chemical weapons, and his community will be massacred. One last point, which is outside the scope of the above: Haitham al-Maleh, chairman of the Syrian National Coalition's board of trustees, was quoted in the press and the media as saying that he had proof that Maj. Gen. Omar Suleiman was killed in the explosion in Damascus on July 18. This is a lie or hallucination that brings back to mind the baseness of some in the Syrian opposition, which drives people away and makes them fearful for the future of Syria in such individuals' hands. Maj. Gen. Omar Suleiman had a health condition, and was treated in Cairo. Then when his condition got worse, he went to Germany where treatment was not successful. He then ended up in New York, where he suffered a heart attack on the way to the hospital, and was admitted to the emergency department in another hospital on the way. There are dozens of witnesses to his death in New York, and yet a foolish dissident lies and makes up events without any reason, like half of the Syrian dissidents do; half, and not all. khazen@alhayat.com
