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Obama at the Tehran Bazaar
Published in AL HAYAT on 04 - 10 - 2012

The Bazaar in Tehran was not shut down in protest against the bloodbath in Syria or the pointless efforts of the Syrian regime to achieve the “settlement" which it is dying to ensure.
The Bazaar was also not closed in solidarity with the “rejectionism axis" that has become positioned on the frontlines of the earthquake from Damascus to Baghdad and Tehran, or in protest against the aftershock of the funding of the Syrian regime's battle and its consequences on the economy of a state that considers itself a superpower, and is only lacking the uncovering of its nuclear fangs.
This is war over the Iranian riyal. The shops in Tehran were thus closed, while the unaffected by the concerns surrounding the war of the soft American power and Ahmadinejad's defiance of the psychological conspiracy, were confronted with the anti-rioting police. Far away from the Israeli speculations regarding the “Iranian spring," the closing of the Bazaar appeared to be good news for President Barack Obama, as it increases his chances of winning a second term following the November elections, knowing he never backed down in the face of Netanyahu's blackmail. Indeed, the first insisted that the sanctions had started to affect the Iranian regime, advocating their sustainment to avoid the military option and its hefty price.
In reality, the increase of the sanctions to suffocate Iranian economy and dry up the sources of the funding offered to the regime's wings abroad, might be the only accomplishment secured by Obama's administration at the level of foreign policy. It is also clear that the Syrian revolution which surprised everyone – including the Americans – granted Obama a golden opportunity to seize the “historical moment," providing his administration with all the right circumstances to dismantle the rejectionism axis without firing one American bullets and without dispatching the Marines to the Arabian Sea and the Syrian coasts.
The administration's tightening of the sanctions and the fangs of these sanctions are wearing down the Iranian currency and fueling the conflict between the faltering president, i.e. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, and his opponent, Speaker Ali Larijani. They are thus exchanging accusations and causing the youth to take to the streets to express their anger for the first time since the passing of the Green Movement. As for the Iranian spring that might not wait for the total collapse of the riyal or the bankruptcy of the superpower – one which is excluded as long as Iran is using Iraq as an alternative channel to get hard currency - it might constitute for Guide Ali Khamenei the other facet of the storm which President Bashar al-Assad had excluded because the Syrians are “rallied around their command!"
Tehran is funding its nuclear program, the battle to save the Syrian regime, and the revival of its wings on the Mediterranean Sea to remain close to Israel. Many Iranians are now without jobs and far away from their livelihood needs. As for Ahmadinejad, he will consider that the demonstrators' clashes with the police in Tehran are part of the “cosmic conspiracy," and that the enemies of his country are infiltrating the Iranians' minds via Facebook and Twitter. He is reassured in this by Khamenei, who recognizes the existence of “major obstacles" and is relying on the “steadfastness of the youth in the face of the pressures." By doing so, he is probably emulating the Syrian command's wager on what it dubs the “steadfastness of the Syrians," while carrying out overbidding in portraying the West, thus comparing it to “worms sucking the blood of the people!"
What the Guide is unaware of is the exact same thing which his allies could not recognize, and was confirmed by the slogans related to the resistance against Zionism while the dictatorships continued to oppress their people and Zionism continued to rest assured in the presence of stupid enemies: Khamenei cannot convince the demonstrating youth in Tehran that the “worms of the West" are the ones that ate up their currency.
Tear gas bombs are being used by the police in Tehran, while the reassurances of Iranian Defense Minister Ahmad Wahidi in Baghdad regarding collaboration at the level of regional security is mere smoke, used to conceal the crisis between the two allies following the searching of an Iranian place which crossed the Iraqi airspace on its way to Syria. At this point, it might not be an exaggeration to point to an Iranian insistence on publically leading Baghdad into the conflict over Syria, through Wahidi's call for the implementation of the Iranian-Iraqi defense and security agreements.
And while Nouri al-Maliki is being pulled by Iran and America in opposite directions, the question is: how long can the wisdom of the Guide persist in the face of the West's worms and the psychological war of sanctions, before Al-Maliki becomes in the same position as Hezbollah, which is confused at the level of the Syrian regime's fate.
Iran is not Syria, but the spring and its fall are crossing the border, while those whom Ahmadinejad awaited in the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz are still wagering on the fangs of the oil ban.


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