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The Syrian Opposition and the Game of Nations
Published in AL HAYAT on 26 - 09 - 2012

Joint UN-Arab Envoy Lakhdar Brahimi is counting on earning support from all the members of the Security Council, especially its permanent member states, in order to become fully engaged in finding a solution to the war in Syria and reaching a settlement. In the first appraisal he presented to the Security Council, he stressed that this conflict was beginning to threaten civil peace, as well as regional and international security, which forced the Security Council and all its members to deal with this issue, seeing how the sustainment of peace and security is at the core of its mission – after Russia and China claimed that the conflict in Syria was an internal issue and did not come within the Council's jurisdiction.
On the occasion of the United Nations General Assembly meeting, during which all the decision-makers around the world are present and the Security Council can hold a session on the highest level, Brahimi hopes to be able to launch his mission within the few coming weeks.
Moreover, the situation on the field along the Syrian border is providing Brahimi with an additional argument, as the shells and clashes are crossing Syria's border with the neighboring states on a quasi-daily basis, from the east with Iraq to the north with Turkey, the south with Jordan and the occupied Golan and the west with Lebanon. And regardless of the reasons behind these clashes and the limited response of the neighboring states, no one can guarantee that the situation will not slide towards confrontations with this or that neighbor, which could trigger regional and domestic wars in light of the intertwinement between the reformatory demands and the political and sectarian divisions in those countries.
But what is happening on the ground inside Syria and along its border might not go in line with the calculations of all the concerned states, while it has become clear that the blood being shed, the comprehensive destruction of Syrian towns and cities and the impact of this war on the neighboring states, have not yet prompted the reconsideration of these calculations. This is true although some field developments are sometimes pushing towards this or that conclusion, which is recanted soon after.
In other words, it has become certain that the game of the nations in Syria has not yet ripened to reach a settlement that could be agreed on at the Security Council, even if the conflict has reached unprecedented levels of violence, killings and destruction. Moreover, the conflict is starting to spread, bit by bit, in the countries of the region, with all what this features in terms of the possible eruption of wide-scale war to be added to other factors in this tense region where the crackling of weapons is all that can be heard.
In parallel to this game of nations, the regime has not shown any change at the level of its security solution strategy. Hence, it is continuing to deploy its heavy artillery and air force in the face of the armed opposition, and is proceeding with the killing and destruction of civilian positions, in a clear message that does not tolerate any interpretations. It is also saying that the violent disciplining campaigns are the only way to subjugate the people once again.
This equation has not yet been affected by all that was done by the opposition, whether politically or on the field, which means that the tug of war will continue unless the opposition is able to break the stalemate of this domestic equation, along with the ceiling that was set for the game of the nations in Syria.
In parallel to the debates and speeches tackling the Syrian issue at the United Nations nowadays, there are ongoing discussions between the different sides of the opposition with its military and political branches. What is known so far is that these discussions are still at their beginning and are being pushed in many directions by foreign affiliations and internal competition over power, amid an inability to come up with the minimum required level to change the domestic equation, a change without which pessimism and expectations to see further killings and destruction will continue to prevail.


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