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The Diplomacy of France's Hollande on Syria and Iran
Published in AL HAYAT on 29 - 08 - 2012

In his first speech before his country's ambassadors posted abroad, the president of France, Francois Hollande, used the language of decisiveness and force vis-à-vis the Syrian and Iranian regimes. He outlined a French plan linked to the Syrian regime, based on a fundamental French principle, namely the need for Bashar Assad to step down.
Indeed, there can be no political solution with him. Furthermore, he represents a threat with his continuing use of barbaric violence and massacres again this people, crimes that require investigation by the International Criminal Court (ICC). Hollande outlined the plan for a current French initiative on Syria, pending for the obstacles of Russia and China to be overcome at the United Nations Security Council.
Hollande believes that the Syrian opposition should speed up the formation of a provisional transitional government that includes leading figures from all sides and one is widely representative, so that it can be the legitimate representative of a new Syria. During a chat with journalists at the Elysees Palace on the sidelines of the conference, the foreign minister, Laurent Fabius, clarified that the idea of forming a transitional government is meant to convince those who ask about what will happen after Assad's departure.
Russia, for example, is afraid of Islamist extremists and of chaos after Assad's fall, as happened in Iraq after the fall of Saddam Hussein; the Russians are continually referring to this. Hollande hopes that Arab allies of France will make efforts to encourage the opposition to do this, and recognize a transitional government. The French president revealed that France is working with Turkey to help those on the ground in Syria to establish liberated zones, without getting into the details of this assistance. This is while Fabius clarified that this topic is being studied.
As for Syria's use of chemical weapons, he said that this would be a justification for military intervention. In the same context, he said that France would not accept seeing Iran obtain nuclear weapons, which would threaten all countries of the region, and that France's responsibility requires toughening up sanctions on Iran.
The decisiveness that Hollande demonstrated on Syria and Iran indicates that the new French president is keen on fostering new action on Syria, but undoubtedly, the flagrant failure by Western countries on the Syrian crisis is the result of the stances by Russia and China.
Russia lost Libya, where it had a huge embassy and a significant presence, alongside the United States, after the Americans forgave Qaddafi's crimes in exchange for reparations. Russia does not want to abandon the Syrian regime. Vladimir Putin and his foreign minister realize that it is important for Assad to continue in power after all of the massacres, and that the Syrian regime is not as important as the Russian regime, and therefore, it cannot be forgiven for its atrocities like Putin was for the massacres in Chechnya and elsewhere.
The Syrian regime might think that it is doing what the Algerian regime did when faced by Islamic extremists in the eighties, and finally saved itself. However, the international community was not against the Algerian regime at the time, and it was not isolated. The Syrian people are fighting for freedom and a better life, and the situation is different because times have changed.
Even Algeria might see a popular movement some day, but the Algerian president is smart, and has realized that distributing money to people might ease their resentment about their conditions. As for Assad, he continues in his policy of killing, bombing and displacing people who have been impoverished by the sanctions, the corruption and the sheer denial of reality.
As long as the West's efforts are based on non-intervention, militarily speaking, it gives Assad more time to continue his policy of violence. But in fact, the more violent things get, with more killing, the fiercer the domestic uprising against him will become, because the people of brave cities from Aleppo and Homs, to Deraa and the Damascus countryside are talking only about one wish, which is to see him go. A large number of people in Aleppo remained with Assad, but this has changed because of the violence and a large number of his supporters now want salvation and his departure, because they know that there is no hope if he continues to brutalize and kill, with a state of war throughout the country.
Only the Syrian people can be victorious over the regime when facing the brutality and massacres, as it will only continue in its uprising against Assad. France's efforts should be appreciated despite the complexity and difficulty of finding a solution, but the end it will come from inside the country, mainly because the international community appears incapable of acting.


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