Duran leads Al Nassr past Yokohama Marinos into AFC Champions League Elite semi-finals    Al Ahli cruise past Buriram into AFC Champions League Elite semi-finals    Saudi Arabia offers condolences to Iran following deadly Bandar Abbas port explosion    Saudi Arabia welcomes Palestinian leadership reforms, appointment of Hussein Al-Sheikh    Ministry of Hajj issued over 150,000 Nusuk cards for the Hajj of 2025    Saudi Arabia deports 12,866 illegal residents in a week    Pope Francis laid to rest at historic funeral in Rome    Massive explosion at Iran's Shahid Rajaee Port injures over 500 people    SFDA clears first 44-ton medical shipment for Hajj pilgrims    Over 13 million worshipers pray at Rawdah Sharif in a year    Saudi orchestra to perform at Sydney Opera House in May    Al Hilal thrash Gwangju to reach AFC Champions League Elite semi-finals    Nammos Amala Resort to open soon with Saudi-Greek designs    Saudi Arabia completes 674 Vision 2030 initiatives, achieves 93% of KPIs as ninth-year milestone marked    GACA chief chairs 16th meeting of the Steering Committee on aviation's strategy    Alkhorayef praises advancements in Al-Kharj food industries sector    Saudi Theater Commission launches its Work and Learn Project in UK    The season has begun — and one comment shook us all    Average life expectancy in Saudi Arabia rises to78.8 years    Famed Philippine film star Nora Aunor dies at 71    Pakistani star's Bollywood return excites fans and riles far right    Veteran Bollywood actor Manoj Kumar dies at 87    Bollywood actress vindicated over boyfriend's death after media hounding    Grand Mufti rules against posting prayers and preaching in mosques on social media    Exotic Taif Roses Simulation Performed at Taif Rose Festival    Asian shares mixed Tuesday    Weather Forecast for Tuesday    Saudi Tourism Authority Participates in Arabian Travel Market Exhibition in Dubai    Minister of Industry Announces 50 Investment Opportunities Worth over SAR 96 Billion in Machinery, Equipment Sector    HRH Crown Prince Offers Condolences to Crown Prince of Kuwait on Death of Sheikh Fawaz Salman Abdullah Al-Ali Al-Malek Al-Sabah    HRH Crown Prince Congratulates Santiago Peña on Winning Presidential Election in Paraguay    SDAIA Launches 1st Phase of 'Elevate Program' to Train 1,000 Women on Data, AI    41 Saudi Citizens and 171 Others from Brotherly and Friendly Countries Arrive in Saudi Arabia from Sudan    Saudi Arabia Hosts 1st Meeting of Arab Authorities Controlling Medicines    General Directorate of Narcotics Control Foils Attempt to Smuggle over 5 Million Amphetamine Pills    NAVI Javelins Crowned as Champions of Women's Counter-Strike: Global Offensive (CS:GO) Competitions    Saudi Karate Team Wins Four Medals in World Youth League Championship    Third Edition of FIFA Forward Program Kicks off in Riyadh    Evacuated from Sudan, 187 Nationals from Several Countries Arrive in Jeddah    SPA Documents Thajjud Prayer at Prophet's Mosque in Madinah    SFDA Recommends to Test Blood Sugar at Home Two or Three Hours after Meals    SFDA Offers Various Recommendations for Safe Food Frying    SFDA Provides Five Tips for Using Home Blood Pressure Monitor    SFDA: Instant Soup Contains Large Amounts of Salt    Mawani: New shipping service to connect Jubail Commercial Port to 11 global ports    Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques Delivers Speech to Pilgrims, Citizens, Residents and Muslims around the World    Sheikh Al-Issa in Arafah's Sermon: Allaah Blessed You by Making It Easy for You to Carry out This Obligation. Thus, Ensure Following the Guidance of Your Prophet    Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques addresses citizens and all Muslims on the occasion of the Holy month of Ramadan    







Thank you for reporting!
This image will be automatically disabled when it gets reported by several people.



The Difficulty of Predicting the Direction of Oil Prices
Published in AL HAYAT on 13 - 06 - 2012

The lobbies of Vienna's biggest hotels are witnessing, during the OPEC conferences, a heavy presence of western economic advisers, financial agencies, specialists and analysts of oil market conditions, who often cross the Atlantic to monitor events. What are they monitoring? What will the press learn from the oil minister of OPEC's biggest producer, Saudi Arabia? What will it do? Will it increase production, or reduce it? What kind of price level does Saudi Arabia want to see? One hundred dollars a barrel, or more, or less? These people are not journalists, but their profession resembles that of the press, as they attempt to obtain news that will impact global oil markets, in terms of the direction of oil prices. In fact, in the last three months, the OPEC price has dropped about $10, from $108.07 a barrel in May to $97.34 in June. There have been many explanations for this drop, such as the financial crises in Greece, Spain and Italy and the sluggishness of the European economy, the lack of a take-off in the American economy, and the slowdown in growth in China and emerging countries. However, all of these factors were present when OPEC's production level stayed constant, with Saudi Arabia producing 9.9 million barrels a day, under the same conditions. It is said that geopolitical tension was behind the price rise, but the tension continues today. Iran continues to insist on developing its nuclear weapons and Israel continues to threaten that a military operation against Iran is still likely, while the tension in the Middle East continues, due to the continuing crisis in Syria. Iraq is experiencing poor political and security conditions, as well as structural corruption, which do not guarantee the country's stability. All of these conditions existed when prices rose to more than $120 a barrel, and these conditions continue to exist as prices fall.
Speculation in financial markets is playing a significant role. In June, brokers in financial markets wagered over the long run on a rise in prices, and spurred investors to wager on this rise. Now, they are betting on a drop in prices in the short term. Thus, it is difficult to predict whether the price will rise once again, or whether it will drop, because global economic growth is suffering from a decline. Saudi Arabia is determined to protect its interests, and the world's interests. The Kingdom produces enough oil to meet the needs of the world and its own clients, and provide the financial reserves needed to see the development of the country and the people. It is true that Saudi Arabia and its production can have an impact on the price of oil, if it wanted, for example, to significantly reduce production. However, it is a country that acts responsibly, and is aware that a large rise in oil prices will affect demand and accelerate the development of alternative energy sources. This happened in the US, in the development of gas and shale oil; within a decade it became independent of oil exports from the Middle East, but continues to be concerned with a region that affects international oil prices, and with the oil price level, even if speculators are now the ones who are responsible for developments in prices.
It is difficult now to predict the direction the price of oil will take and whether it will continue to decline or rise again, as the conditions have not changed in both cases and the level of production is still adequate and meets the demand. But no one can predict what direction the price will take, even though logic says that the world will still need oil for a long time and that tensions in the region will maintain the concerns over the sources of vital energy which will not return to previous levels, i.e. $40 and $45 a barrel. This time is long gone, and OPEC has learned to manage its affairs to deal with such a drop.


Clic here to read the story from its source.