Major General Omar Suleiman, the former Minister of Intelligence, believes that post-revolutionary Egypt faces three major problems, led by the rise of the religious political movements and the fact that they now have legitimacy. To be sure, the religious groups never had the chance to engage in politics or understand society, and their leaders live in self-isolation, which means that if Egypt were to come under their control, it would suffer greatly and may witness strife, violence and even the prospect of civil war. I had a meeting with the Major General in Cairo that lasted for more than two hours. This was our first meeting since he left office, and I found his knowledge of Egyptian affairs to be rather encyclopedic, as is his habit, in conjunction with careful analysis and a bigger margin of freedom in talking, since he is now ‘retired'. Omar Suleiman said that the performance of the Parliament in the past few months was subpar, focusing on marginal issues, and issuing laws that do not serve the interests of the country. Suleiman expressed concern over the continuation of this situation in the coming months, and the possibility of Parliament passing laws on women that would imprison them at home – although there exist at present laws that are somewhat fair to women. The Islamist movement in his opinion does not have the cadres capable of running the institutions of the state. Nonetheless, the Islamists want to control the country's reins. Since 40 percent of the Egyptians live in poverty, it is easy to fool them with handouts in the form of providing birthing services for pregnant women, or donating rice and sugar and so on and so forth. Omar Suleiman has been in a confrontation with the Muslim Brotherhood both in office and outside of office. When he nominated himself for the election, the Islamists were furious and made threats of violence, because they knew that he had the best chance to win, and passed the ‘Omar Suleiman law' in just four days of deliberation. He warned of civil strife if an Islamist were to be elected President, and cited the lowering of the child custody age and the attempt to lower the marriage age for girls, and other decisions that reflect religious beliefs rather than social needs. An Islamist President is the second problem that the Major General is concerned about, because such a president would head a theocratic state that the Egyptians have never known before, and groups affiliated with the Islamists in the past may make a comeback – groups such as the Jihad, al-Jama'a al Islamiya and Al-Takfir wal Hijra. In truth, the presidential candidate Abdel Moneim Aboul Fotouh had established al-Jama'a al Islamiya, which remains active today and has the freedom to engage in organized political work. Since the border with Libya and Sudan is open, there is a good chance for them to obtain weapons, which will be in the hands of a group that threatens to return to violence if society does not do as they want. In other words, the former head of intelligence is concerned by a possible situation where Ayman al-Zawahiri would recruit a number of Egyptian Muslims, with the result being that Egypt becomes a country that exports terrorism in the eyes of the West – and this risks having aid to Egypt cut off and sanctions and embargo imposed on it. By contrast, a liberal President will suffer from them, yes, but he will remain capable of acting as a referee between the various branches of power, and of halting any bid that undermines the freedom of society. A liberal President will also be acceptable to the West. The third problem is the Palestinian issue and its impact on Egypt's relations with the United States. Major General Omar Suleiman believes that Egypt's strategic relations with the Americans are extremely important for the stability of Egypt, as has been the case before, and as the case will be in the future. If the relationship with the U.S. deteriorates, “Then we will become worse than Pakistan and Afghanistan, and we will be seen as a country that exports terrorism", Suleiman said. “Without control over its sovereign decision, Egypt will lose its leading role and its army will decline as 70% of its weapons are U.S. made" He added. “The economy will be undermined as well – as there are 500 factories under the Qualifying Industrial Zone (QIZ) program to export goods to the U.S. that are supposed to increase in volume", Suleiman also told me. Against this background, the Muslim Brotherhood are publicizing their hostility to America to please voters, and hinting that they may cancel the peace treaty with Israel. I asked Major General Omar Suleiman whether there will be a military coup. He said: This is possible, very possible. However, the Muslim Brotherhood are not idiots, and they are preparing themselves militarily. In two or three years, they will have a revolutionary guard to fight the army with, and Egypt will face the risk of civil war like Iraq. I shall continue tomorrow. [email protected]
