It seems that the outcome of the second round of the French presidential elections on May 6 is not yet settled in favor of whichever hopeful, between outgoing President Nicolas Sarkozy and Socialist candidate Francois Hollande, although all the polls prior to the first round showed the victory of the latter. Uncertainty at the level of the results of the second round, although the balance is tilting in favor of the Socialist candidate, is probably due to the percentages secured by the extreme right wing and the radical left and the atrophy of the center during the first round. Indeed, this means that the campaign during the second round will focus on the slogans that might polarize those who voted in favor the two opposite extremes, i.e. the electoral reservoir which will settle the outcome of the process. This is exactly what is raising clear European concerns, especially in regard to Sarkozy's attempts to woo the voters of the far-right National Front, and Hollande's attempts to increase the radicalism dosage in his rhetoric to attract the Left Front voters. Ever since he announced his candidacy, Sarkozy repeatedly stated he will seek to limit the flow of migrants to France and reconsider the Schengen Agreement for the free circulation of people within the territory of the European member states. But what is new following the first round is that he rendered the issues of migration, security and France's priority – i.e. the main slogans of the National Front – at the heart of his program. At this level, he sent his Interior Minister Claude Guéant who is known for his opinions and positions that are close to those of the far-right to the Luxembourg meeting yesterday, in order to demand that the border controls be restored in clear contradiction with the Schengen Agreement. The EU Commissioner for Home Affairs called for her part on the “European leaders to prove their ability to lead instead of pursuing the far-right powers,” in clear reference to Sarkozy. In parallel, Hollande's possible victory is also provoking European concerns vis-à-vis European agreements signed by Sarkozy during his term. The first among these agreements is the one related to monetary stability and was ratified by the Union. Indeed, the Socialist candidate believes that this pact focused on the limitation of expenditures and showed stringency at the level of budgetary deficits, without tackling the growth issue which in his opinion can alone lead Europe out of the state of economic depression. This position was among the reasons behind the tensions affecting his relations with Chancellor Angela Merkel who sponsored the agreement with Sarkozy, and who announced in advance her refusal to reconsider it. In the meantime, and in an attempt to polarize the far-left which has numerous reservations over the foundations of the Union's formation, Hollande might adopt some of this wing's positions. He might also adopt the positions of some Socialists, namely Laurent Fabius who is likely to occupy an important position in Hollande's administration and who had launched a wide-scale campaign to ensure a “no” vote in the last referendum over the European constitution during the term of former President Jacques Chirac. The two candidates are aware of the fact that they are under a European microscope, which is why - during the campaign for the first round - they limited foreign policy to European issues. Even when one of them addressed another foreign issue, he tackled it from the angle of the presence of migrants coming from abroad and entering France, and not from the angle of international relations with this abroad. On the other hand, and although the Syrian crisis has imposed itself on the French foreign agenda, none of the candidates presented a comprehensive vision in regard to France's relations with the region and the rising powers around the world, knowing they could justify that by the fact that the internal problems were currently of interest to the French voters and not foreign issues. Still, the result so far is the absence of such a comprehensive vision, with the exception of the European concerns over the possibility that the Union might be forced to re-launch negotiations over a basic agreement in it, regardless of whether the current president or his opponent wins.
