Since the beginning of this month, a war has breaken out in Sudan between the Republic of Sudan and the State of South Sudan, mainly over the occupation and destruction of the oil fields of one another. Both sides resorted to this devastating war despite mediation efforts by the Organization of African Unity (OAU) and the United Nations, with a view to reach a peaceful solution. This is while the UN Security Council may soon impose economic sanctions against both countries. This new tragedy is the inevitable result of the failure to reach an agreement over the development of oil fields located on their border or their joint fields, before a final demarcation of the borders has been implemented. The developments in Sudan indicate that the fighting may expand to beyond the oil fields regions, to other areas in the two countries. More sinister than all this is the fact that the Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir has begun to threaten to end self-rule in the South, portending a further escalation in the fighting. There have been many oil-related disputes since day one of the secession of southern Sudan. This included the issue of the transit fees collected by Khartoum from Juba, in return for the latter exporting its oil through the Republic of Sudan. The demands made by both countries included impossible conditions. For instance, Khartoum requested a fee of $ 32 per barrel, before raising it to $ 36. Juba, meanwhile, offered to pay 70 cents for the barrel. However, it is customary in the oil industry for transit fees to range between one and two dollars per barrel. So as a result of the demands made by the two countries, no settlement was reached at the conference in Addis Ababa in late January, which was sponsored by the OAU. Since then, oil disputes escalated. Juba halted production, and entered into negotiations with Kenya to build an alternative pipeline to export oil through the Indian Ocean, in lieu of the pipeline that traverses the Republic of Sudan. Juba also accused Khartoum of ‘stealing' oil, while Khartoum accused Juba of failure to pay its financial dues, seizing certain volumes of oil in the pipelines and storage tanks in the process, to compensate for the South's arrears. The oil dispute between the two countries escalated this month, and saw the occupation of oil fields and destruction of oil facilities. This threatens to expand the scope of the war if it is not quickly nipped in the bud. The current war began on the first of April, and on the tenth, troops from the South occupied the Heglig oil field for the second time in recent times. Two days later, the President of South Sudan Salva Kiir declared that his troops will not withdraw from Heglig this time, and said: The last time our army occupied Heglig, we ordered it to withdraw because this area is disputed, and we don't want to seize it by force. But this time I will not order them to withdraw. It is worth noting that the designated international tribunal had ruled that the oil fields in Heglig are located within the territories of the Republic of Sudan. However, South Sudan contested and appealed this ruling, and is now attempting to occupy Heglig by force. The OAU has called for the ‘unconditional' withdrawal of the South's troops from the Heglig field. However, President Salva Kiir refused this request, and also refused a similar request by the UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon, and said that he will order his forces to occupy the state if the UN does not demand Khartoum to withdraw first from Abyei, which has a productive capacity of 6000 barrels per day of crude oil. It is noted that the productive capacity of the Heglig field is around 60,000 barrels per day, or about half of the productive capacity of the Republic of Sudan of crude oil, which is about 120 thousand barrels per day. The productive capacity of the State of South Sudan is about 300,000 barrels per day. With the escalation of military threats, the Sudanese parliament convened and declared South Sudan as an ‘enemy' state. Subsequently, the Speaker of the Parliament Ahmed Ibrahim Tahir said, “"We declare that we will confront the Sudan Peoples' Liberation Movement (the ruling party in South Sudan) until we end its rule of the South”. The South, meanwhile, announced that it has discovered an illegal pipeline from the Heglig field to other oil fields controlled by Khartoum, and claimed that this was another means of stealing South Sudan crude oil. The two countries have both mobilized their armed forces, an indication that they are preparing for a long battle. Historical experiences in the Middle East and beyond show that the lack of agreement over border demarcation followed by the discovery of joint or border oil fields often leads to war, and the destruction of these fields, especially between conflicting countries and governments that resort to war whenever they fail to reach diplomatic solutions. For example, there are dozens of oil fields in border regions in various parts of the world, especially in the North Sea, where a diplomatic agreement among the states concerned was reached (the United Kingdom and Norway) for the development of these fields shortly after they were discovered, and prior to the commencement of production, in accordance with international laws and regulations in place. It is also known that wars do not remain restricted to only one objective. Rather, their objectives gradually expand with the intensification of disputes and battles, and this is what can be expected to happen with the battles for oil in Sudan. In this case, this war may have a negative impact on Egypt, especially in light of Juba's control of the Blue Nile waters. It is likely that Juba would gradually join the axis of the Nile headwater countries, and support their demands for the redistribution of its waters in favor of this axis and against the interests of Sudan and Egypt. It is also likely that the war would expand beyond the oil fields to other areas in the two countries, and indeed, the gradual expansion of the fighting has already begun. But more seriously, it is not farfetched that Israel may be dragged to the confrontation. Indeed, there are ongoing talks between it and the UN for the participation of a group of Israeli police officers in the UN force in the South. *. Mr. Khadduri is a consultant for MEES Oil & Gas (MeesEnergy)
