Damascus announced that it would commit to the ceasefire at six o'clock this morning, but its commitment is not expected to last long, after it coupled its pledge with the assertion that its forces would “remain mobilized to respond to any aggression” and insisted on using the term “terrorist groups” to describe the opposition with which it is supposed to begin negotiations in accordance with the plan of UN Envoy Kofi Annan. And certainly, the Assad regime will not run out of pretexts and arguments to justify later refraining from fulfilling the promises it had made. Annan had called on the regime to “change its approach” – in other words, he hit the nail on the head, because the regime is unable to change itself. Just imagine what would happen if the regular army really did stop firing and withdrew to its barracks: of course, hundreds of thousands of Syrians would take to the streets in peaceful protests calling for change. Could the regime bear with this? And would it accept for protests to fill the streets of Damascus itself, and to bear witness to its own downfall? Of course not, and this is why the ceasefire sought by Annan will not last long – with he himself not convinced to begin with of the success of his mission, even if he refuses to declare it defunct. Yet such a situation, if it were to persist, bears threats that are likely to quickly escalate. Indeed, Damascus's Foreign Minister, who declared from Moscow that Turkey had become part of the problem in his country, means exactly what he says, and this explains the attacks across the Turkish border perpetrated by the Syrian army and targeting the camps of Syrian refugees – attacks that are likely to escalate, because Damascus is in dire need of a “way out” to divert the attention away from its obstinacy. The policies of the Syrian regime have always relied on turning abroad to escape from the problems of the interior. Over the course of four decades, it has devised for itself a foreign role in Lebanon, Palestine and Iraq, so that it may not have to deal with its domestic situation in a manner that would force it to evolve and change. And it seems that it cannot break away from this formula, which springs from its minority-based and family-based structure. This is why it thinks and works towards dragging the foreign dimension back in again, and there is no better than Turkey for it to provoke into responding to its violations, so as to move the problem to the border between the two countries, after it lost the Palestinian card following Hamas's withdrawal and failed to provoke tension on the Golan front. It also fears to squander a government loyal to it in Lebanon, one that is already shaken to begin with, although it does not hesitate to embarrass it further with its aggressive behavior and its requests. And as it seems, Iran is refraining from sacrificing Hezbollah by igniting the South Lebanon front at a timing that does not directly serve its own interests. The Turks are well aware of the Syrians' intentions, and this is why their army has not taken the initiative of responding to those violations, nor fulfilled its repeated threats of establishing a buffer zone on Syrian territory to protect civilians. It is because this could ignite a confrontation with Damascus without cover from the Security Council. Turkey has considerations that exceed Damascus to include Iran and Russia – both of which it is making sure to maintain stable relations with, despite some recent tension. It is also exerting efforts to separate its bilateral issues with the two countries from the issue of its stance on Damascus. Nevertheless, continued attacks could embarrass Ankara, a member of the North Atlantic Alliance (NATO), and harm the prestige of Turkey's deterrent force, which had succeeded in the past to rein in Damascus's support for the rebels of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK – Partiya Karkerên Kurdistan). It remains that one cannot predict what the Assad regime might do in its search for ways out of its crisis, since the world keeps turning away and granting it deadline after deadline.
