After the secretary general of the United Nations issued a statement containing the six-point-plan put forward by Kofi Annan, the Arab-UN envoy to deal with the Syria crisis, the veteran diplomat was armed with a unified Security Council position to support his mission, and not just authorization by Ban Ki-moon and the Arab League. Dealing with the Syrian crisis has been stymied by the division in Arab countries, and on the international scene, over how best to proceed. However, the statement by the Security Council – which should not lead to the delusion that a solution to the crisis will be reached swiftly – puts the foreign efforts to deal with the humanitarian crisis in Syria and the political impasse there on a new course, one year into the uprising. Annan is just as much a Russian and Chinese envoy as he is a western or Arab one, even though the Syrian president rejected recognizing Annan's capacity to speak on behalf of Arab countries when he received him in Damascus. The six-point plan that Annan discussed with Bashar Assad was announced publicly and is an official UN document, informing each party what is required of the Syrian regime, after it had remained secret due to Annan's determination to see his negotiations succeed. The most important development that places Annan's efforts on a new path is Russia and China's endorsement of the Security Council statement, after they used a veto twice. This requires the head of the Syrian regime to take into account the new Russian stance, after he relied on Moscow's defense of him in recent months. This new element will gradually make itself apparent in the Kremlin, as a result of several factors, which have appeared in the statements by the Russian foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, in recent days: 1-Lavrov's use of the term "delay" by the regime in carrying out reform steps and its making mistakes, while continuing to criticize armed groups several times, is due to Moscow's belief that Assad's team has continued to stall in order to gain time, which it uses to continue using a "security approach" that produces more killing. Meanwhile, the Russians are accused of providing political cover for this game. Lavrov no longer tolerates seeing Moscow accused of giving cover for more killing. 2-After the issuing of the Security Council statement, Moscow has returned to its close coordination with Washington over the Syrian crisis, to the degree that it surprised some states allied with the United States. Russia was even ready to agree to a resolution by the Security Council, and not just a statement by the secretary-general. 3-The Russian leadership is upset by the deterioration in its relations with Arab Gulf countries, especially Saudi Arabia, because it vetoed a Security Council resolution adopting the Arab League's initiative on the Syrian crisis, and does not want to see this relationship damaged further. When Lavrov met with foreign ministers of Gulf Cooperation Council countries in Riyadh, the Saudis insisted that the meeting be with the Arab League in Cairo, because the Gulf stance was the same as the Arab stance, and not just one group of Arab countries against another. The Russians are determined to clear up the negative climate that resulted from this veto in terms of their relations with Saudi Arabia. 4-Moscow will continue to hesitate about "Assad's stepping down being a condition for a solution." However, some circles in Moscow have begun to ask, "Can Assad remain in power after 10,000 people have been killed?" Two contending points of view are debated in Moscow, as the group calling for continued support for Assad is being met by a group saying that the matter is not for Moscow to decide. Instead, legally speaking, it is for the Syrians to decide themselves. This latter group disassociates itself from the matter and rejects any talk about providing guarantees to Assad, if the matter is broached. It prefers that the Arabs and the international community deal with the issue, especially since a resolution by the UN General Assembly led to Annan's appointment as an Arab-UN envoy. This requires that the Arab League serve as the ultimate authority for Annan's working plan, which calls for Assad transferring his powers to his vice president, to negotiate the formation of a new government. The fact that Russia is beginning to realize the situation does not mean that Moscow's stance will accelerate the solutions, and an end to the crisis, and that the Syrian people's suffering will end soon. As we await the developments, it is certain that Annan's mission is the final opportunity for a calculated political transition in Syria, and for this reason the man is going to be patient, with considerable backing from Russia.
