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Ayoon Wa Azan (His Chances for a Second Term Are Limited)
Published in AL HAYAT on 09 - 02 - 2012

The U.S. presidential election year is still in its beginning, but in this case, “you can tell a book from its cover”. I read that Barack Obama will defeat the Republican candidate for President, whether it will be Mitt Romney or Newt Gingrich, and that to achieve this, he chose to suck up to the Israel lobby and the Likudnik Americans of every kind. In the meantime, Israel's supporters will continue to attack him, so that his surrender to a neo-Nazi and racist state will be complete and unconditional, and so that the Americans remain greatly divided about their president.
With regard to the last point, recall that Obama's campaign in 2008 was fought on the basis that he wanted to be a president of all Americans. However, every poll I have since read – and now with the President in the third year of his first term – shows that he is a very polarizing figure.
Gallup conducted a poll recently which has shown that 80 percent of Democrats support him, compared to 12 percent of Republicans. In other words, there is a difference of 68 percentage points, a record number, and which far exceeds the percentage recorded by George W. Bush after 2004. In 2007 for example, with consensus over the president receding after the terrorist attacks of 11/9/2001, the difference in support was 59 percentage points.
In another poll conducted by John Zogby's foundation, it was found that 48 percent of the Republicans support foreign military intervention to protect American interests, compared to 46 percent who oppose intervention and who say that the world has changed.
In the explanations about the Republicans' split over foreign intervention, I read that the Party supporters have been greatly influenced by the stances of the candidate Ron Paul, who is a physician. Paul opposed the war on Iraq, and has called for troops to be immediately withdrawn from Afghanistan. His policy of opposing any foreign wars is finding a lot of support among the youths of the GOP.
A third, joint Washington Post-ABC News poll, found that only 9 percent of Americans see an economic recovery is taking place. But when the Americans were asked about Obama's performance in the economic crisis, 52 percent said Obama has accomplished “not much” or “little or nothing” as president, while 47 percent said they approved of his decisions.
The same poll showed further division when the Americans were asked whether they considered Barack Obama a strong president or not. 48 percent replied that they consider him a strong president, while 48 percent saw him as a weak president (the rest did not express a particular opinion).
All these polls not only show a split among Americans over their president, but also the deep divide between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party. The first was always a centrist party with liberal elements, while the second was considered the party of the military-industrial complex, and subsequently it champions foreign intervention. Let the Arab readers note here that the proportion of the two parties' members is almost two Democrats for every Republican.
But for the picture to be complete we must add Obama's supporters, who worked to get him into the White House and then left him after they accused him of having betrayed the principles that he fought the elections on. For instance, they accuse him of backpedaling on the issue of closing the Guantanamo prison, of putting together a hit list to assassinate wanted terrorists, some of whom are Americans, without judicial approval, of wiretapping people's phones and stepping up the use of drones that kill civilians along with the targeted individuals, in addition to accusing him of being an obedient enabler of the interests of the wealthy of Wall Street.
The large polarization among voters over Barack Obama, and the view that he is a controversial figure rather than a unifying one, is supposed to mean that his chances for a second term are rather limited. However, I believe that he will most likely win if his opponent were to be Mitt Romney, the multimillionaire who pays less tax than the poor, or Gingrich, the morally and politically corrupt candidate. Romney had dealt a humiliating defeat to Gingrich in Florida, despite the fact that a Likudnik billionaire, who owns gambling casinos in Las Vegas, had pumped millions of dollars into the campaign of his ally Gingrich. It is now possible to say that Romney is the Republican candidate best poised to take on Obama in the elections. But matters can be judged by their outcomes in the end, and Mitt Romney has yet to secure the Republican nomination for the presidency, because in the last round of the primaries, Rick Santorum managed to win in Missouri (where Romney came second after Ron Paul), Minnesota and Colorado.
Amid the fog of the mutual campaigns exchanged by all candidates, I try to probe the stance of President Obama, on the Middle East in particular, and I find him to have chosen complete subservience to the Israel lobby, the Likudnik Americans and the neocons, and then I find that they are also using the opportunity to demand more of him.
I will continue tomorrow.
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