There seems to be a clear contrast between the case of Egypt and Tunisia on the one hand, and that of Libya on the other. Indeed, both the regimes of Mubarak and Ben Ali were toppled without foreign intervention, while NATO played the greater part in toppling Gaddafi. And there remain common features between what happened, is happening and will happen in Tunisia, and the situation in Egypt, in spite of the differences. “Egypt is not Tunisia”. The Mubarak regime's most prominent figures kept repeating this expression, and the state media actively promoted it after the Tunisian Revolution erupted. And when some Egyptians set themselves on fire in front of the parliament building for reasons that fall under hatred of the regime, just like Bouazizi did in Tunisia, Mubarak's men mocked them, and poked fun at the “burning passion” of Egyptians for imitating others. One regime leader even commented jokingly: “those who imitate Bouazizi have memorized but not understood”. And after protests erupted in Cairo and other provinces of January 25, then Secretary-General of the National Democratic Party (NDP) Safwat El-Sherif came out on state television to insist that Egypt was not Tunisia, and that the leaders of the NDP do not flee “because they bear the concerns of the country and its citizens”. The next day, the headquarters of the NDP was set on fire, and with it the legitimacy of the regime it represented went up in flames. The Tunisian Revolution thus represented a model which Egyptians considered achievable, and they indeed followed in its footsteps and succeeded at toppling the regime. Egyptians today are once again observing the events in Tunisia, and they believe that their country will walk down the same road, even if there are some differences in the details and the circumstances. The results of the Constituent Assembly elections in Tunisia have given Egyptians clues to the results of their own parliamentary elections, which will begin in less than a month. And Egyptian activists have often compared the two cases of Tunisia and Egypt on social media websites, emphasizing the position taken by the Tunisian army, “which remained neutral and did not enter the political game”, as well as the exclusion law that prevents prominent figures of Ben Ali's regime from taking part in political life for a period ranging between one and ten years. Of course, those calling for “the constitution first” in Egypt have praised the Tunisian plan to elect a Constituent Assembly that will take charge of government for a transitional period of one year, draft the constitution then prepare for parliamentary and presidential elections, and wished that the Military Council had followed the same steps. And those calling for a secular state in Egypt remained, lamenting their state, because the Military Council and the Islamists, and perhaps others, have chosen to hold the parliamentary elections first, so as for the new parliament to select a Constitutional Assembly to draft the constitution. Then, after a referendum on the new constitution, presidential elections will be held. This was until the Tunisian elections were held and their results announced, showing an overwhelming victory for the Islamists, and it appeared that there was not much difference between having the constitution or the parliament first, since the street would grant its trust to the Islamists either way! It also appeared that the main issue for secular forces regarded their lack of influence on the street, for reasons that would require a different article. Yes, there are similarities between the cases of Egypt and Tunisia, but the contrast between the two still stands as well. Indeed, the Egyptian army was forced to enter the political game, welcomed by revolutionaries of all strands, because Mubarak had not fled, and continued to cling to his seat for 17 days, until the military (as the stories go) asked him to step down, so he did. Moreover, the police collapsed completely, and it was imperative for there to be an authority that would ensure security and manage the country's affairs. And of course, Mubarak remaining in Egypt forced the army into confrontations with those demanding that he and prominent figures of his regime be put on trial. The army was also forced to bear the accusation of negligence or collusion. Then came the issue of “the elections or the constitution first”, to widen the rift between the forces calling for a secular state and the military. And after every test showing that the Islamists would achieve victory in the parliamentary elections, the gulf widens between secular forces and the Military Council. But more importantly, the development of events in Egypt and the behavior of secular forces are benefiting the Islamists and increasing their chances, while they are in no need of additional chances, having quite enough of them already! Contrasting between the cases of Egypt and Tunisia, the current acting President in Tunisia is the man who was Speaker of Parliament under Ben Ali's regime (Egyptians cannot imagine being ruled by Fathi Sorour, even for a day). On the other hand, the law of disloyalty or exclusion has not been passed in Egypt, and it faces obstacles or delays, and the remnants of the NDP are running as candidates in the elections, because no law forbids them to do so – while the remnants of Ben Ali's regime have also run as candidates, despite the fact that there is a law preventing them from doing so! (The electoral list of the Initiative Party included only figures of the former Tunisian regime, while others from among them ran as independents) Indeed, the exclusion law in Tunisia only applies by court verdict on the basis of formal accusations, and it is strange that no accusations have been raised against the remnants of Ben Ali's regime, as it seems that Tunisian society has reached a consensus to overcome this issue – or perhaps those who seek to head towards a secular state have found such remnants to be better than the Islamists! And in Egypt, some of those who call for a secular state are still looking for ways other than the elections, which will bring the Islamists, and they repeat in discussions amongst themselves the expression “Egypt is not Tunisia”, without learning from the mistakes of… the remnants.
