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Does Ahmadinejad Deserve All of This?
Published in AL HAYAT on 23 - 06 - 2009

In its response to the demonstrations protesting the results of the Iranian presidential elections, the country's ruling establishment has been determined to assert that only a few “hypocrite” demonstrators linked to “western agents” continued to mass in the streets despite Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's call to end the protests. This ruling institution went as far as to say that the messages issued by Mir Hossein Mousavi on his website and directed at his supporters, to go ahead with their protest of the results, were “cooked up” by those agents, and were not issued by the candidate whom the government declared the loser, with the aim of striking at the Islamic Revolution from inside.
The future of the Islamic regime and the affirmation of its popular legitimacy are the important thing, in the view of the ruling institution, and more important than the criticism directed against the election process. Thus, this ruling institution affirms that the heavy turn-out in the elections was a vote of confidence by Iranians in the Islamic regime, irrespective of the objections that accompanied the announcement of the results. Nothing worries the powers-that-be in the Islamic Republic of Iran more than the portrayal of the objections to the elections as objections to the regime itself, and the wilayat al-faqih (system of clerical rule) that is considered the symbol of strength of this regime and its foundation of its ability to settle domestic disputes with a decision by the Supreme Leader, as the decisive element. Never before has a decision by this figure been met with distrust and skepticism, as it is today. There is distrust and doubt, not only from the defeated candidates, but more dangerously, from some leading figures in the religious institution.
The dangers of this doubt lie in the fact that it appears to be the first time in the history of the Islamic Revolution in which the Supreme Leader stands against the popular, democratic will. Whether there was fraud in the election results or not is unimportant. Merely raising questions about the results in a regime whose performance is considered to be above suspicion is worrying to the leaders of Tehran.
The Iranian regime is based on two things: its religious base, or adherence to the limits laid down by the Islamic Revolution and safeguarded by the Supreme Leader, as the wali al-faqih (supreme jurist). There is also the democratic base, as the regime derives its legitimacy directly from the people, which is what Imam Khomeini considered the true source of strength that toppled the Shah's regime. Today, the regime fears that these two foundations are being shaken. It is not because the regime's religious foundations are being questioned; the dispute between the two competing sides remains “within the walls” of the Islamic Revolution. It is because a decision by the leading symbol of the ruling religious establishment, the Supreme Leader, is posing questions about whether it suits the interest of the Revolution and its future. In the eyes of a wide section of the Iranian public, the decision is being seen, whether rightly or wrongly, as if it goes against the people's vote. Thus, many opponents of Ahmadinejad's support from the Supreme Leader are asking whether re-electing the Iranian president, over the objections, deserves sacrificing the Revolution's future and its popular support.
The Iranian ruling establishment's fears of Mir Hossein Mousavi and his opposition to the election results are no longer what frighten the regime. The regime is scared by the appearance of a wide-scale popular force that is ready to take to the streets and confront the ruler's decision, even if at the cost of people's lives. Iranian leaders remember this same force is what brought them to power, despite the brutality of the Shah and his intelligence and security organizations.
We are certainly not facing a velvet, rose or orange revolution. Mir Hossein Mousavi is part of the regime, and a child of the Revolution. However, the Iranian regime, full of power and ability to settle things domestically, is gambling by sending one of its children and his followers into the ranks of the opponents to the foundations of the regime, instead of this opposition remaining limited to the style of rule and the workings of institutions, as is now the case. When opponents are pushed in this direction, the true threat to the Islamic regime will have begun. Then, the threat will not require any supposed foreign conspiracies.


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