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OPEC and International Indebtedness
Published in AL HAYAT on 10 - 08 - 2011

The warning by Standard & Poor's about a new financial crisis that might strike Asia, hitting harder than the last one, has caused considerable anxiety about the future of demand for oil, the price level and the revenues of oil-producing states. The financial crisis that is striking the biggest economy in the world, that of the United States, has led to a drop-off in the price of a barrel of oil by three dollars, just after Standard & Poor's downgrading of the US credit rating. If there is a sharp economic slow-down in the US and Asian countries, this will certainly lead to a tangible reduction in the demand for oil. This is turn will require a rapid response by oil-producing countries in OPEC, to withdraw production from the market after it rose in recent months, in anticipation of expected increases in demand for oil amid the absence of Libyan production. No one expected this development, when OPEC countries met in June. In 2008, the economic crisis began with American banks' involvement in the real estate sector, which then moved to government indebtedness, led by the government of the biggest and most important economy in the world: the US. Today, with the new crisis, and the recession coming to Asian countries, there is certainly a need to review the expectations, and quickly, of oil-exporting countries, so that revenues do not experience a big drop-off. In the last decade, OPEC countries have learned how to manage production scientifically during times of crisis. It is now everyone's responsibility in OPEC to look accurately at economic and financial developments in order to prevent a price slide, which will certainly be affected by what takes place in the global economy. If it were not for the movement by French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel, to try and stave off the collapse of the international economy and Europe's debt crisis, because of Spain and Italy, the European Central Bank would not have intervened to prevent a collapse. The heads of the G7 countries, chaired by France, were mobilized, along with the central banks, which should have been an example to all big and small OPEC countries on how to prevent a drop in oil prices below $80 a barrel, which is an acceptable level for investments in the oil sector. The task is a difficult one, because many factors influence the price of oil. It is not just a matter of supply and demand; there is speculation by investors who are making profits even when they bet on prices falling.
Saudi Arabia, the biggest producer in OPEC, has demonstrated its keenness to always see oil market stability and meet the market's needs, to avoid any shortfall. It has always promoted the conditions of the global economy, so that oil prices are not at levels that inhibit economic recovery. The country certainly leads the organization in its fundamental policy options, but it does not bear alone the responsibility when production should fall, which is difficult for OPEC when prices are falling. Each country is responsible for reducing its production share when OPEC decides to cut production. However, it is too early to expect OPEC to meet and decide on a reduction; it can take decisions through coordination, without holding a meeting. But it is certain that oil procuring countries are closely following what is taking place in the economic and financial spheres in the west and Asia, since the growth of China and emerging countries is fundamentally important for demand on oil.

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