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Davutoglu's Watch
Published in AL HAYAT on 08 - 08 - 2011

The painful incidents in Syria stole away the limelight from the other fires that were ignited by the Arab Spring. Hosni Mubarak's appearance before the court did not succeed in catching the attention of the region's people more than a few hours. The crisis in Syria is particular, as the strict domestic stability was among the main cards of this state and its role throughout the decades. The crisis it went through in the beginning of the 1980s is different, as it took place in a different world. It was the world of the two camps, where the rule of the single party was normal, and where regimes did not live under the scrutiny of TV stations, mobile phones, and eyewitnesses.
A few days ago, and more specifically after the intrusion into Hama, the crisis in Syria entered a new phase, one that is more serious both on the domestic and foreign fronts. The Arab and regional follow-up of the crisis became direct, detailed, open, and tense. There was also a change in the international follow-up and the terms used to describe the crisis. Many capitals considered the intrusion into Hama to be the choice of adopting the security solution till the end, regardless of the consequences, after months during which the authorities tried to bring together security deterrence and a call to dialogue and moving towards the issuing of some reforms.
Some days ago, the events in Syria began to turn into a great crisis. There are some who considered that the crisis had overflowed its borders, and that it had become unbearable. This development appeared to be clear in the stance of the GCC, as well as in that of the Russian President, whose country has no interest in condemning or isolating the regime. The GCC statement and the speech of the Arab League Secretary General both have an escalation potential. The repercussions of the Syrian events were also very clear in the stance of Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who sent his Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu to Damascus along with strict words that the Syrian capital is not used to hearing.
Anyone who followed the Turkish-Syrian honeymoon in recent years and the warm relations between the two countries can evaluate the importance of Davutoglu's visit and the danger of its failure, and the entailing bitterness and decisions. Davutoglu already accomplished in Damascus difficult and sensitive tasks related to the Syrian capital's way of dealing with thorny issues in the region. However, the new mission is more sensitive and dangerous. In the past, Davutoglu attempted to convince Syria to change or mature its behavior, but regarding foreign issues. This time, he will ask it to modify its behavior in dealing with the opposition on the domestic front. It is not a simple issue.
Anyone who followed the Turkish-Syrian relations is also aware of other things, such as the fact that Ankara was disappointed last year because of Syria's stance in the Iraqi and Lebanese files. Indeed, Ankara considered that Damascus chose in both cases to have a stance akin to that of Iran. On the other hand, Damascus's doubts in the past months increased regarding the fact that Ankara is aiming in part of its regional program at preparing Islamists to take part in the rule here and there. It is also known that Erdogan is extremely interested in relations with Syria, and that he has close personal relations with President Bashar al-Assad. Moreover, Erdogan considers the Syrian file to be important for his country's interests and image, as well as for his own policy and image. Erdogan is a popular and emotional leader, and this heightens the importance of Davutoglu's visit to Damascus.
Erdogan said that his country does not consider the situation in Syria to be a foreign, but rather a domestic matter. Most of Syria's neighboring countries feel the same. Iran the ally considers the Syrian file to be crucial for its role in the region and for its presence on the Mediterranean through Hezbollah.
Everything suggests that we are in the middle of a great crisis in the region – one that tests relations and alliances, and may avoid regional and international alignments and settlements of account. Both the region's inhabitants and the world are following the events. It can be said that everyone is awaiting the results of Davutoglu's mission. The Turkish minister follows the news and looks at his watch. Who knows, he might arrive late to Damascus and discover that what has happened has happened.


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