The Justice and Development Party (AKP), headed by Recep Tayyip Erdogan, is headed to win in the parliamentary elections in Turkey today. While I had never dared make predictions before, and preferred writing after the event took place just like a historian, rather than before its occurrence like a fortuneteller, I have been following the progress of Turkish elections for months, and there is a consensus that the Prime Minister's party will achieve victory for the third consecutive time. The issue that is being debated is the proportion of victory; according to the referendum, 42 to 47% of the people support the AKP in the elections today. The party enjoys 341 seats in the current parliament, and needs 367 seats, or the two-thirds majority, to rule alone and issue whatever laws it wishes. This will be during a parliamentary period which will probably witness a new constitution that will replace the constitution of 1980, which was backed by generals and the judiciary, and which aimed to preserve the role of the military in protecting the secular regime. According to last year's referendum, 58% of the Turkish people support constitutional amendments to reduce the army's powers and overhaul the judiciary. Objectively speaking, the AKP deserves to win, as Turkey became under its rule the great state it is in the Middle East, excluding the Ottoman Empire. Also, the per capita income increased around 100% in eight years, along with the GNP that had the highest growth rate in the world, after China, not to mention new projects each day and better health care for the Turkish people. Perhaps Erdogan is the model that needs to inspire Arab Islamists, as he is a moderate (“light”) Islamist who knows his boundaries and dares to wage battles. The confrontation with the army ended with the imprisonment of Generals who were accused of attempting a coup, something that had not happened since Ataturk. Erdogan sought to be part of the European Union, and when these efforts stumbled, he focused on the Middle East. I know from my talks with him and with (former) Egyptian and Syrian officials, that Turkey was behind the projects of regional economic cooperation, which also included Jordan, and would have also included Iraq, had the recent political events in our countries not taken place. If we were to compare the importance of the Turkish achievements with Iran's, then Erdogan strived to bring together the people in the region through improving economic performance and living conditions for everyone, and succeeded in doing so. As for Ahmadinejad, he was hostile to his neighbors and scared them, and his country ended up having consecutive international sanctions and an embargo, until it became a primary oil-producing country importing fuel – not to mention his tense relations with the neighboring countries, and his alliances with local parties instead of populaces. Erdogan is not above criticism, and I noticed that his opponents accuse him of trying to build a presidential system, like France or Russia, and that he is a new “Sultan”, or Chavez. They point out to his constant attempts to control the AKP. Indeed, in the previous elections, he eliminated two-thirds of his parliamentarians from the party, and now he has again eliminated 220 of his parliamentarians. Some pundits warn against parliamentary dictatorship if the party wins with absolute majority that would exempt it from asking other parties for alliances in important issues, such as drafting a new constitution. His opponents blame him for his internet campaign, with the plans to control new technologies, as Turkish citizens cannot access internet sites except through four governmental portals, according to a new draft law that is supposed to be revised by Parliament next August. Erdogan has attacked Facebook and launched a campaign against the permissibility offered by the new media. The right-wing Nationalist Action Party (MHP) has lost ten of its members, including six senior members, who resigned amidst a sex scandal that involved the publication on the internet of pictures showing them in bed with women who are not their wives. This party had obtained around 14% of votes in 2007, and has less than 10% of support this time. Hence, it is no longer represented in Parliament, and the AKP wins. Even the Republican People's Party (CHP) was not spared from sex scandals, as its leader Deniz Baykal resigned due to such a scandal in 2010 and was succeeded by Kemal Kilicoglu, who is smart and a staunch opponent of Erdogan. Observers expect his party to obtain around 25% of votes. The Turkish parliamentary elections are important in themselves, and also for their Arab repercussions. Indeed, for the first time in decades, there are good political and economic relations with a Turkish government that can gradually benefit the peoples in the region. Turkey's relations with Israel were tense, and worsened after the attack at sea on the Freedom Flotilla last year, and the killing of nine unarmed Turkish peace activists. Perhaps the Arab Islamists will benefit from the Turkish lesson instead of opposing Ahmadinejad and emulating him. [email protected]
