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The Strangest OPEC Conference
Published in AL HAYAT on 08 - 06 - 2011

OPEC oil ministers are meeting in Vienna amid the strangest of circumstances. The Gaddafi regime is quasi-finished, and Libyan oil is absent from the markets. The electricity minister was sent to take part in the meetings of an organization working for the stability of markets and the global economy, and the protection of the interests of member countries, while Gaddafi and his clique have nothing to do with such objectives. However, OPEC members do not have the right to endorse the presence of representatives of the Libyan Transitional Council, since it is not recognized internationally. As for the minister whose country will chair this meeting in Vienna, he is an Iranian, appointed by President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to run the oil ministry; this move was rejected by the Iranian Parliament, because the person in question was a sports official with no connection to the petroleum industry. However, he will chair meetings that will be watched by the entire world, in view of the importance of the impact of oil prices on the international economy and its growth. There will also be questions about the stance by the new Qatari minister, Mohammed al-Sada, and whether he will agree to participation at OPEC by the Libyan minister sent by Qaddafi. Qatar boycotted a meeting of natural gas exporters in Egypt because of the presence of an envoy from the Libyan regime. There are several questions about the reason why OPEC did not postpone this meeting, especially since there is a member state that still lacks a government –Nigeria – after its presidential elections.
However, despite the strange circumstances surrounding this conference, there are important producing states, led by Saudi Arabia, that wish to see stability in international markets, which will experience – based on well-grounded estimations – a rise in the demand for oil over the next few months.
In recent months, oil markets have been balanced, since the world's refineries were undergoing maintenance and the rise in oil prices was linked to the revolutions in the Arab world, to speculation in financial markets, and to rises in prices linked to fears about these revolutions.
Today, with an expected increase in demand and a price level of around $110 a barrel, some responsible countries want to calm markets and enshrine the status quo. They would do this by raising production by more than 1 million barrels a day; OPEC's production is currently 29 million barrels a day. Saudi Arabia, the organization's biggest producer with 8.8 million barrels a day in May, is keen to take part in the "calming down" of prices, which have risen to $110 a barrel, and which might rise even higher if the expected increase does not meet demand. Saudi Arabia needs this to be part of the collective decision by OPEC, even though the only countries that have surplus production capacity are Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Kuwait.
This is why Saudi Arabia is in a difficult position as it tries to convince other countries that a price rise is not in OPEC's interest, even though there will be a benefit from revenues, because the global economy is important to everyone, especially to increasing the demand for oil.


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