Some figures from the International Monetary Fund after reviewing earlier numbers and modifying them: the Egyptian economy grew by 2.7 percent in 2008, the year the global financial crisis exploded, and the crisis impacted Egypt the following year in 2009, when growth was 7.4 percent, and reached 2.5 percent in 2010. The following figure is frightening; the IMF has decided that the Egyptian economy will shrink by 3 percent in 2011, according to current production data. This will accompany a rise in unemployment from 1.9 percent in the first quarter of last year, to 9.11 percent in the first quarter of this year, and inflation in foodstuffs and non-alcoholic beverages to the degree of 22 percent. In short, the current figures are frustrating; the difference in the average unemployment between last year and this year is 8.2 percent, which in a country the size of Egypt means a million or so financially-capable Egyptians. If the numbers are frightening, it is also alarming to contemplate the price of exiting the economic crisis and the impact of this on the freedom of Egyptian, and therefore, Arab decision-making. The Egyptian government is aware of the magnitude of the crisis and is making efforts to avoid the negative repercussions. The Obama administration has promised to reduce Egypt's debt to the United States by $1 billion, with another $1 billion in loan guarantees. The European Union has promised $1.75 billion, while the IMF prepared a basket of assistance for Egypt, worth $4.5 billion and Saudi Arabia has pledged $4 billion. The G8 countries in Deauville last month tried to outbid everyone and put forward a figure of $40 billion to help Egypt and Tunisia over the next two or three years. There was a dispute over this figure that pitted the US and Britain versus France. The only certain figure after the summit was 2.5 billion Euros in assistance by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, or the European Investment Bank. I realize that I am taxing readers, and myself, with these numbers, but I am doing so for a reason. Moreover, there is a consensus that there is an economic crisis, and I trust the knowledge of Joseph Stiglitz, the Nobel Prize winner in economics, who wrote an article in The Financial Times entitled "The Arab Spring is at Risk without Aid Now." In other words, an economic crisis threatens the young people's revolution, and there is agreement on the need to help Egypt. The revolution has led to economic losses of about $12 billion up to now, and the known foreign debt is $34 billion; The Financial Times believes that Egypt's annual budget will see a shortfall of around $20 billion between 2011 and 2013. I said that the difficulties of the Egyptian economy frighten me, and added that what frightens me more is how to exit the crisis. If we except the Arab assistance from Saudi Arabia, Qatar and elsewhere, the price required for Western assistance is the freedom of Egypt's decision-making. I am not saying that the current Egyptian government is prepared to pay this price, and I very much doubt that the young people of the revolution will accept handing over their political decision-making to the outside world, after the reasons for their revolution included a call for free national decision-making, a rejection of dependence on the US, and opposition to the peace treaty with Israel. Nothing comes without a price; no one believes that the US and the EU, the IMF or the World Bank want to help Egypt out of the kindness of their own hearts. Seeing Egypt act with freedom politically is necessary for the country's future, and the future of the entire region. I ask Arab countries that are capable to help Egypt immediately because they will be helping themselves if they do so. The freedom of Egyptian policies will protect the decision-making ability of every other Arab country, or we will all be mobilized by what stirred the youth of Egypt. [email protected]
