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Lebanon after the Elections
Published in AL HAYAT on 10 - 06 - 2009

Certainly, the parliamentary election results in Lebanon were a positive surprise for the West. Most European governments, led by France and Italy, as well as the US, were scared that Hezbollah and its allies in the Christian opposition would defeat the majority that existed prior to the polls.
The division and disputes within the March 14 camp, in addition to the mistaken opinion polls that tipped the balance in favor of the opposition, cemented this belief among many people; even governments began to prepare themselves for what they would say after the election victory that was expected for Hezbollah and its allies.
However, the democratic elections in Lebanon proved that the majority of the Lebanese people preferred freedom and openness to the modern and advanced democratic world, over the dictatorship of the single party and of the single opinion and blind obedience, as General Michel Aoun requested when selecting his candidates.
The March 14 coalition received the majority; this also denied the claims of Iran's foreign minister, Manouchehr Mottaki, who during a meeting with French officials in Paris, expected the March 8 coalition to win in the elections.
It is clear that the awareness of the Lebanese people led to the big turn-out, as thousands of Lebanese came from abroad to cast their votes. Some of their plane tickets were paid for by this or that group, whether from the majority or the opposition; both sides performed this service, so that the Lebanese could come home and vote. But a number of Lebanese paid their own way to come and vote, because they are concerned with the future of their country. This is good and encouraging and affirms the necessity of allowing the Lebanese living abroad to vote.
In the run-up to the elections, Hezbollah's leader, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, described the civil strife of 7 May 2008 as a “glorious” day. Naturally, this sparked the fears of many who were hesitating over selecting the candidates they would vote for. The direct and open intervention by the Iranian president in the Lebanese elections also gave a push to the victory by the majority. The Maronite patriarch, Cardinal Nasrallah Sfeir, also warned against taking the country in a different direction, and this was a push in the direction of vigilance and the mobilization of pro-majority voting. The elections in Lebanon took place in a sound and democratic fashion, and the role of Interior Minister Ziad Baroud should be commended; Lebanon needs many officials of his caliber and this level of quality, integrity, moderation and effectiveness.
What will come after the encouraging election results? The speech by the head of the Future Movement, Saad Hariri, who is expected to be the next prime minister, was rational, calm and moderate, free of tension or arrogance. He was humble after the election victory, compared to Nasrallah's renewed rhetoric of partisanship and warnings.
Lebanon needs today a national unity government that improves the lives of Lebanese and takes the right decisions for the sake of country's future, not to please this or that regional ally. Veto power (one-third-plus-one) in a Cabinet produced by elections that the entire world has recognized as legitimate and democratic is unnatural and unacceptable, based on democratic practice, especially when the turnout is this high.
A new phase is underway in Lebanon after the elections: first of all, it is represented by the election results. But there are also the changing regional conditions, led by the rapprochement among Saudi Arabia, Syria and Egypt, along with what we are hearing about promises given by Syria to Saudi Arabia over Lebanon.
There is the Cairo speech by US President Barack Obama to Muslims and Arabs and his anticipated dialogue with Iran after the June 12 presidential elections; there is also the US-Syrian dialogue, gradual opening to Syria by the Obama administration and the close monitoring of its policies.
All of these items might indicate the possibility of non-intervention by Syria and its allies in this phase, to obstruct and paralyze the new government, even if it is the government of the majority. There is considerable hope that the new government can, firstly, be formed, and then include ministers of the caliber of Baroud. There is hope too that President Michel Suleiman can play the role of guarantor for all sides in this government, so that Lebanon can recover and prosper.


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