The International Energy Agency (IEA) has predicted that in the event oil prices remain above the 100 dollar per barrel level throughout this year, OPEC oil revenues would increase to a record level of approximately one trillion dollar this year. (As is known, crude oil prices have exceeded the 100 dollar level in the first three months of the year.) There are many factors behind this increase. First of all, there is the continued oil demand growth in emerging Asian nations (e.g. China, India and Korea), in addition to increased demand in some Western industrialized countries (in particular the United States). Another factor is the successive unrests and revolutions in Arab countries, including oil-producing nations and otherwise. In the beginning, the markets were concerned by the possibility of the Suez Canal shutting down because of the revolution in Egypt (However, it remained continuously open for navigation without interruption in spite of the unrest and protests in Egypt). This then shifted to fear of possible supply disruptions from Libya (supplies from Libya indeed stopped for 18 days, but were compensated and no shortage in the market occurred). At present, there are concerns that unrest in the Middle East would continue, in particular regarding the possibility that the GCC-Iranian disputes may be exacerbated. And naturally, the tragic aftermath of the devastating earthquake in Japan has impacted demand for certain fuels. Finally, threats by Nigerian rebels against oil installations have also had their toll on the markets, and also threats against the employees of oil companies operating in the Nigel Delta during the elections that will be held in the country this month. The shifts above have raised concerns among the oil markets, and prompted the Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to predict that oil prices will rise to about 150 dollars per barrel. In a lecture he gave before OAPEC's forum on the oil and gas industry in Kuwait late last month, Mr. Bassam al-Tamimi (Arab Petroleum Investments Corporation (APICORP)), said that [oil revenues] between 2000 and 2009 amounted to nearly three trillion dollars. He also said that the GDP of Arab oil-producing countries rose in the past decade from 678 billion dollars in the year 2000 to more than 1713 billion in 2009, or by more than 250 percent. It is worth noting here that APICORP conducts regular studies to update its data on an annual basis. The second question that must be raised here is: What is the amount of money required to modernize the Arab countries? We are asking this question of course, as a result of the fundamental shifts and widespread unrest at the Arab level in general, in particular in light of the culture of corruption pervading our countries. This is not to mention the inexcusable lack of human security, such as providing the basic needs of the citizens, from water electricity to modern education and healthcare, as well as fundamental freedoms and equality before the law. The third question that must also be asked here is: Can societies be modernized in light of the present corruption and instability of ruling regimes, and the unfeasibility of peaceful change in governments? Will a few millions or even trillions of dollars make any difference, in terms of changing the living standards of Arab citizens, if no fundamental change takes place in the way officials deal with these citizens, and in the respect for one another? What are the best ways to address this tragic situation? Of course, the daily complaints of the citizens are futile, because no one listens except during revolutions. The best way to deal with these issues peacefully would be through a legislative branch (parliaments or Shura councils) that would carefully scrutinize public budgets, while monitoring spending and spending areas. Without an effective role played by capable and authoritative legislative bodies, it is difficult, if not altogether impossible, to control governments' actions in view of the exorbitant oil revenues they possess. Secondly, a specific and limited proportion of oil revenues must be allocated to government salaries. Things have gotten out of control in some countries, and more than 80 percent of oil revenues have been diverted to cover the salaries of state employees. Further, a high proportion of oil revenues must be allocated for reconstruction and development projects, while overstaffing - for the purpose of buying the citizens' allegiances- and underemployment, which do not reflect in economic productivity, must be discontinued. Continuing to overstaff without any restrictions brings woes to everyone, in the sense that producing countries will rely more and more, either on increased production, increased prices, or both. This means that there are no limits to these countries' need for oil revenues, which causes sustained addiction to high oil prices, and overspending current assets on unproductive sectors. Emancipation from dictatorship and authoritarian regimes does not just mean access to regular elections. It is clear that Arab parliaments have failed to perform their duties as they should. Meanwhile, our societies, as is known, largely consist of young people (more than sixty percent in certain countries). Those youths have all the right to organize themselves through civil society organizations (e.g. feminist, educational and health-related, etc.), and to obtain support so that they, in turn, can participate in monitoring governments and contribute to their countries. *. Mr. Khadduri is an energy expert
