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Ayoon Wa Azan (How Do We Prevent the Revolutionaries' Failure and Defeat?)
Published in AL HAYAT on 17 - 03 - 2011

Many Arabs have once sung the words of the famous patriotic song “From the rumbling ocean, to the revolutionary Gulf, we rally behind you O Abdul Nasser”. Today, revolutions, sit-ins, protests and demonstrations are erupting from the Atlantic Ocean to the Gulf, while there is not one leader for the nation, not even one leader within each respective country.
How do we prevent the revolutionaries' failure and defeat? First of all, the Arab regimes must listen to their peoples and meet their demands, especially since the protests demanding dignity, jobs and freedom are legitimate and justified in the face of undemocratic regimes, which have no independent rule of law, accountability, transparency or rights for women. Second of all, the peoples revolting must demand the possible, before they could be heeded.
I begin with Egypt, the largest country and the nation's leader, and the heart of the Arab bloc. There is now a government in place supported by the millions of Tahrir Square. However, Egypt's problems are many, large, and complex and there is no magical wand that will make the Egyptians wake up tomorrow in a utopia. What is required of the revolutionaries thus is to move on from their anger toward its opposite, or to patience, in a country populated by 82 million but without an adequate amount of natural resources. Feasible solutions do exist, led by the need to fight corruption, which is exactly what the government of Essam Sharaf is doing, and hence, I believe it is going in the right direction.
In Morocco, Mohammed VI succeeded his father Hassan II. The new King did not have the pan-Arab or international ambitions pursued by the late King, who enjoyed Arab and international prominence and stature. Instead, King Mohammed VI focused his attention on domestic issues – which are probably more important for Moroccans – and continues to do so. Recently, we saw protests and demonstrations in Morocco, and I hope that Mohammed VI will listen to his people.
On the other coast of our nation, I was personally surprised to hear that protests have been taking place in Oman, with several people killed or injured. When I went to Oman for the first time in 1975 to interview Sultan Qaboos, there was only one paved road in the country between Muscat and Muttrah. The Falaj Hotel was mostly made of prefabricated plastic blocks, and we, the three guests of the Sultan, slept in one room, with water supply only available for one hour a day. I then returned in 1995 to conduct a second interview with the Sultan, after my job took me to Europe and the United States. I found Oman to be an advanced country with all the amenities of modern life. Nevertheless, the people have made just demands, and the speed with which the Sultan responded to them and the reforms he declared are but an acknowledgement of the legitimacy of these demands, so perhaps the march of reform shall continue.
Equally, there are just demands being made by the protesters in Bahrain. However, I find them to be their own worst enemy. This is because demanding what borders on the impossible means that this will be automatically rejected. I heard in Lulu Square calls for the downfall of the regime, which means that the regime will inevitably seek the downfall of the protesters demanding this. Perhaps the tragedy here is that the majority of the Shiites in Bahrain are moderates. Al-Wefaq had almost half of the seats in the parliament, but the voice of the extremist minority is louder. And with Iranian instigation, I feel concerned about the future of a country that has very limited resources, and a country that relies on services by acting as a regional and international banking hub. I fear that foreign companies may soon desert it, in the event of a prolonged crisis.
In every Arab country, there are known and just demands, and the blame is on the regimes which have been late in dealing with the aspirations of their peoples, and they are paying the price for this today. But perhaps the most difficult situation is the one facing President Ali Abdullah Saleh in Yemen. Although he is indeed very intelligent and a great maneuverer, things have gotten out of his hands. The government in Sanaa is facing local opposition, a separatist movement in the South, terrorism by al-Qaeda, and renewed Houthi restiveness, all in the poorest Arab country, and the country which I fear may become the first country in the world to be classed as lacking enough water to meet the needs of its people.
Libya, in contrast to Yemen, has enough oil resources to meet the people's needs. However, its ruler Muammar Gaddafi teeters between criminality and inanity, and Libya will not know peace until he and his regime are gone. I hold the Arab countries responsible in case he remains in power.
Then there is Jordan, which like Egypt, Bahrain and Yemen, is very poor in natural resources. However, conditions there are good compared to other non-oil producing countries. At present, protesters have taken to the streets in Jordan with legitimate demands, and I hope that the government will respond to them quickly, because some parasitic elements such as plum job seekers and fundamentalist opportunists have gotten on the bandwagon.
Finally, we have Lebanon, and the absence of calls there for the ouster of a brutal regime may imply that Lebanon is an oasis of peace, security and prosperity, amid the turbulent Arab countries. However, the more correct explanation is that because there is no government in place there, there are no protests against it.
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