Some of what is happening in the Arab World. Some ascribe the establishment of the modern Egyptian state to Muhammad Ali Pasha. Some trace it back to the Fatimid Period (coincidentally, the Fatimid rebellion started in Tunisia and moved to Egypt, spreading from there to Libya and the Levant when the Abbasid Caliphate in Baghdad grew weak). In any case, historians consider it to be the oldest country in the Middle East, and the most well-entrenched. It has been the subject of few revolutions during its history, its changes taking place through the struggle for power within the political class (Abdel Nasser's revolution being an example of this). As for the people, they had always stood with the state. This explains its perenniality, and the fact that its rulers imagined themselves to be eternal. For the first time, the Egyptian people “want”. And for the first time, they are imposing their vision on those they entrust with their affairs, and are having an influence on the formation of a regime that would suit their ambitions. But the path to reaching such ambitions is still in its early stages. Here is the counterrevolution having started. And there are the Islamists allied with the liberals starting to distinguish themselves. This is the phase of the struggle for power between allies. And it is only natural for the victors to struggle amongst themselves. In Tunisia, the situation is not very different. The people, who wanted to change the regime, were able to topple it. The government that succeeded Zein El-Abidine Ben Ali's regime was unable to last, and it did not satisfy the ambitions of those who had risen up and demanded change. They were not fooled by the toppled party's trick. They have waged a struggle and they are still determined to impose their program, a program that took shape during the protests. They dismissed the post-revolution Prime Minister (Ghannouchi) and the ministers from the ruling party. They imposed their program of turning to democracy, and of holding to account those who had humiliated them for decades. There is some chaos in Tunisia, and that is alright. In neighboring Libya, the situation is different. The dictator claims to have learned from the experiences of Egypt and Tunisia. He sees that Mubarak and Ben Ali fled, when he had advised them to be resilient. This is why he decided to face the storm. He started a hysterical campaign of systematic killing, wagering on the fact that no one would intervene to stop the massacre. His wager was appropriate – because he had left no influential Western country without a “trade” deal struck with him (former British Prime Minister Tony Blair had volunteered to improve his image and succeeded). As for the Arabs, he did not take them into account at all. They are too powerless to resolve their own problems, let alone be asked to intervene to stop massacres in another country. Here is the West now waiting for the picture to clear in order to decide what to do. If the revolution triumphs, it will have triumphed. And if Gaddafi triumphs, it will reap the reward of having remained neutral in the form of oil and of projects to rebuild what the warring factions have destroyed. If Libya is divided, it will try to gain control of the wealthier regions. The chaos in Libya is saddening, but it will produce a better situation. In Yemen, President Ali Abdullah Saleh has offered many concessions. He decided not to have his son inherit his position. He tried to satisfy the opposition by referring the issue to the ballot boxes. The decisions he took did not meet the demands of the protesters, who are still being subjected to arrests and harassment on a daily basis. The tribal situation allows him to maneuver. Due to such a situation, he might reach an understanding with the protesters, an understanding which in the best of cases will not exceed a kind of primitive tribal democracy. The chaos in Yemen will last a long time. From Yemen to the Levant: Lebanon is the country most exposed to chaos. Tomorrow thousands will gather, raising the slogan “No to Weapons”, i.e. the weapons of the Resistance and Hezbollah, in the face of another slogan: “Israel too says No to Weapons”. This war of slogans confirms the inability of the two divided camps to coexist. Civil war will not be unlikely after the Special Tribunal concerned with the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafic Hariri issues its decisions. Mao Zedong used to say “there is great chaos under heaven – the situation is excellent”. Well, there is great chaos in the Arab World – “the situation is excellent”.
