Washington - The Obama administration sees Lebanon's parliamentary elections on Sunday as pivotal in shaping the future of that country, while at the same time highlighting the composition and the program of the next Lebanese government as the parameters for determining its policy towards it. The elections, largely seen as a referendum on the current majority (March 14) policies since taking power in May 2005 and after ending the Syrian occupation, are not expected to be “decisive” according to Les Campbell, the head of Middle East Department at the National Democratic Institute. Campbell, who is currently in Beirut to monitor the process, said in remarks at an event hosted by the Lebanese Renaissance Foundation and the Aspen Institute in Washington earlier this week, that “elections are often not the most important element in burgeoning democracies” adding that “in Lebanon specifically they would primarily serve as a starting point for further negotiations over the formation of the next government.” A US senior official, however, highlights the “importance” of Sunday's elections stressing “that they could affect the future direction of Lebanon”. The official, who spoke to Al-Hayat on condition of anonymity, emphasized the contrasts of choices on the ballot. On the one hand he points to the “path of consolidating true freedom, independence” which Washington believes is held by the March 14 coalition and the independents, and on the other “a path where forces of violence and extremism believe they can use violence and extremism to achieve political goals” widely used by the U.S. administration in reference to Hizballah coalition and their violent take-over of Beirut in May of last year. Polls released on Thursday in Beirut, indicated that only 14 out of the 128 seats are up for grabs. The average polling numbers are giving the opposition (Hizballah coalition) a two-seat edge (65 seats) compared to 63 seats for the current majority controlled by March 14 coalition. The group currently holds 72 seats, however, the economy and high unemployment rates as Campbell asserts, appear to be the dominant factor in Sunday's elections and not foreign policy issues. Nevertheless, the small edge revealed in the polls will not be enough to declare a political mandate for either camp. Absent of a landslide for one of the camps, the elections is unlikely to lead to a large political shift according to Campbell who predicts a continuation of the present power sharing arrangement or something very close to it regardless of the elections' results. He also points to the likelihood for the present coalition blocs to rearrange as their internal divisions adjusted to the election results, producing a new political map to grant their own survival. The U.S. official reiterates Washington's position that the composition of the future Lebanese government and its program will be the determinants of the Obama administration policies towards Lebanon and will decide the shape and amount of any aid sent to Lebanese institutions. Washington supported the negotiations in Qatar in May of 2008, leading up to the Doha agreement and the current unity government. The senior official reaffirms that the “US will review its policies and attitudes and support based on the result of elections and composition of new government and policies and programs of that government.” Key to this condition will be the government's support to UN resolutions 1701 and 1599 to stop the arm flow to Hizballah and enabling the Lebanese army and security forces to control its territory, as well as the distribution of key cabinet seats such as defense and ministry of interior, both held by independents today. The US has given Lebanon 1.2 billion USD in total assistance since 2006, 437 million dollars in military assistance since then, with an additional 98.4 million pending for Congressional approval as part of the 2009 budget. Congressional committees will attempt to pressure the administration to control or seize this aid to Lebanon if the Hizballah coalition wins by a landslide. The official stresses that the US wants “to have a partner” in Lebanon. Latest efforts by the Obama administration indicate their support to Lebanon's President Michel Suleiman, the former head of the army who remains popular and widely seen as a centrist by the Lebanese people. Both U.S. Vice President Joseph Biden and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton have met with Suleiman during their visits to Beirut last month. The President has a major stake in Sunday's elections, as he is trying to build his own bloc in the parliament through several independents running in the race. Their victory can easily make him the kingmaker in tipping the balance between the two camps. While Hizballah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah has heavily criticized the visits of U.S. officials, labeling them as “suspicious”, the U.S. official emphasizes that “neither Washington's support for the army nor the visits stand for anything other than signaling our support to the central government and institutions”. He adds that “if there are certain factions like Hizballah who feel threatened by them, it is because they know that strong government institutions will not enable them to operate freely as a militia against the political will of the state”.
