Gaddafi's joke two days ago on American TV regarding the Libyan people's love for him and their willingness to die for him, may not be his last. Indeed, the basket of our brother the Colonel is filled with maneuvers and tricks which he has used throughout the years of his rule since 1969, in order to remain the leader of his Great Jamahiriya for the longest period possible. Still, his recent jokes may be more tragic than the way he perceives his people. A lot can be said about Gaddafi's bloodiness, tyranny and isolation from the world and especially from the Libyan people and their aspirations. However, the man is a first-class swindler who is a master of camouflage. This characteristic allowed him to govern Libya the way he did for over forty years, and he will not hesitate to resort to it in light of the tightening of the domestic and external noose around his neck. Moreover, he will not hesitate to use all his capabilities – although they are decreasing by the day – to remain in power, without any consideration for what Libya will look like the day he will leave. It is unlikely that the method used in Tunisia and Egypt to force these countries' presidents to depart will work with Gaddafi, due to the differences affecting the authority's composition in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya. Indeed, in Tunisia and Egypt, the army is the backbone of the authority and the source of the president's powers. And for reasons related to the assessments of the army commands in both countries and the nature of their relations with the United States, they withdrew their support to the presidents and asked them to leave. This step was adopted so that these armies are not forced to engage in acts of violence against the people, in order to ensure a new stage in which they would be able to maintain their role. In Libya however, through an opportunistic maneuver and a wide-scale camouflage operation, Gaddafi was able to limit the role of the army which he perceived as being a source of threat to his rule, thus inventing the theory of the armed people and forming popular and security committees to protect his authority. During the current crisis, Gaddafi was able to reap the fruits of this maneuver, seeing how there is no efficient power in his direct surrounding able to force him to leave in order to save the country. True, he rapidly lost his authority in most Libyan regions, but he is still barricaded in Tripoli along with his loyal aides who linked their fate to his own, either due to familial and tribal reasons or due to their implication in the crimes he committed against the Libyans. Therefore, when Gaddafi talks about the fight for survival, he knows that he will not leave except by means of a military operation targeting his last stronghold. In his calculations, his oppositionists are facing difficulties in rapidly implementing such an operation, due to what it requires in terms of capabilities and organization, which do not seem to be available for the time being. He knows that the retreat of his authority from the majority of the regions was secured peacefully and after the people joined the movement which opposed him, not through a military operation. Consequently, he deployed his security brigades throughout Tripoli to prevent any popular action in it, but also to fortify it in preparation for the military operation. Gaddafi is following the international positions and he knows that they are escalating, starting with the sanctions and the referral to the international criminal tribunal and reaching the dispatch of aid and the mobilization of the troops. Through his insistence on staying, he is provoking a foreign military operation that is believed to be the only way to force him out. This confrontation with foreign troops in Tripoli may be the very thing sought by Gaddafi to restore his image as a hero facing a foreign invasion. Did Saddam Hussein not do the same when he considered that an American invasion of his country will restore the glow which he lost after all the Iraqi people abandoned him? The result was that he summoned an invasion instead of offering concessions to his people and leaving his post. And the rest of the story is known. And just like Saddam Hussein failed in this maneuver and led to additional calamities which affected his country and the Iraqi people, the fate of Gaddafi's maneuver will not be any different. However, in order to remain in power for a few more days, the brother leader believes that this deserves burning Libya and destroying what is left of it.
