When Colonel Muammar al-Gaddafi reprimanded the Tunisians for having staged their revolution against Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali, he sensed that the hurricane which quickly moved from the Jamahiriya's Western front to its Eastern front will not spare Libya and its regime that should have left years ago - i.e. ever since it was subjected to international sanctions following the detonation of the Pan American jet over Lockerbie two decades ago. But surprisingly, the Colonel had a triumphant return to the international community, as he immediately assigned his son Saif al-Islam to solve the Lockerbie and the Niger plane problems. The lifting of the blockade that was imposed on the Jamahiriya thus came as a gift and invigorated the regime. The Colonel then continued his overture toward the West following the war on Iraq in 2003, when he announced his willingness to relinquish the development of weapons of mass destruction, crowning this return with the normalization of the relations with the United States in 2008. He also opened the cupboard of his secrets regarding all the “liberation” movements which he supported with money and arms, from Europe to Latin America and Asia, presenting himself following this return as a reliable partner in the fight against illegal immigration from Africa to Europe and an aide in the fight against the fundamentalist movements. And although he is nowadays eagerly warning against the establishment of an “Al-Qaeda Emirate” in the Jamahiriya, he was among the most fervent supporters of the dispatch of Islamic combatants to Iraq to fight the Americans. The international community - which is now trying to help get rid of Gaddafi and his regime - did not place any conditions on the renormalization of the relations with Libya, knowing that the United States and the European countries could have forced the Colonel to adopt a series of reforms to ensure the respect of human rights and launch projects for the development of the infrastructure in a way allowing the country to go in line with the current era and its requirements. It is known that Libya enjoys a massive oil wealth and has the seventh largest reserve in the world. Consequently, the West never cared about the Libyan population, but rather about seeing Tripoli changing its foreign policy, helping in the war against terrorism, and opening its doors before investments in oil and construction projects. When Gaddafi was scolding the Tunisians for having relinquished Ben Ali, he was probably concerned about what was awaiting him, as he too has been sitting in his chair for four decades while completely distant from what was going on in his country, let alone the changes and transformations happening abroad. A country like Libya can no longer be isolated from what is occurring abroad, even if its leader shuts the doors in the face of the outside world and perceives his citizens as being “rats” or “stray dogs” among other descriptions revealing the despise with which he treats his own people. Presently, Gaddafi is acting not only as though he owned the country and its wealth, but also its population. And if the people disobey him, he believes it is acceptable to introduce mercenaries from neighboring African countries to discipline them. After he was able to normalize the relations with America and Europe, Saif al-Islam al-Gaddafi tried to introduce some reforms to guarantee his succession and the continuation of the rule. However, he failed to do so despite the numerous attempts deployed against the hard-line circles around his father, which is why he left Tripoli more than once in protest, and always returned to try again. But to no avail. He was once asked how he could argue with his father, leave the country then return to it, and whether or not the Colonel could have helped him introduce these reforms had he been convinced they should be adopted. He said that the relations between the members of the Gaddafi family were complicated, and that the family was like freemasonry, in that it would be difficult for anyone from the outside to know what was happening inside of it. However, when he faced the first test, the son proved to be a chip off the old block, even preceding his father in threatening with bloodbaths and civil war that will not spare anyone. Therefore, it was not surprising to see the hurricane crossing Libya in the absence of any constitutional frameworks or institutions to embrace democratic expression, allow the discussion of the projects of political reform and constitute a platform to which the citizens could resort. Moreover, the country is suffering from a deteriorating economic situation and the full absence of any developmental projects to provide job opportunities to the unemployed youth. The latter factors alone are crucial in the detonation of the popular anger, not to mention the feeling of humiliation and the disregarding of people's dignity by the ruler who treats them as though they do not exist. How dare they stand in his face? Did Gaddafi not address the angry crowd by asking “who are you”? Hence, the transitory phase in Libya might be lengthy, difficult and bloodier than in Tunisia and Egypt where there are military and security institutions and constitutional structures and councils, although they were governed by a dictatorship. There are also institutions, parties, committees and a civil society, all of which can produce a new class that is able to undertake and supervise the change. In the Jamahiriya however, there are neither institutions nor councils, and there are no constitution, civil society, parties or committees that can provide the sons of the revolution with the required expertise. But this gap can be filled by the return of the exiled Libyans from abroad. In any case, the transitory phase in Libya might extend over a long period of time, until all the remnants of the structures established by Gaddafi around himself are removed, before the country can move toward the building of democratic institutions from scratch. Certainly, the United States - along with some European countries - does not wish to see the burial of Gaddafi's regime obstructing the ongoing flow of Libyan oil to the markets. For a long time, these countries have remained silent vis-à-vis Gaddafi's crimes domestically and abroad, and lately seemed to be rushing to woo him at the expense of all the slogans of reform and human rights they are raising. They never placed conditions on his return to the international community after all he had done in the world, and are now clearly trying to have the upper hand in the new regime and its policies. It is obvious that these three revolutions which exited the womb of the street do not have ready-made leaderships that are organized and carry a real program for the reconstruction and management of the institutions. This is true except in the case of the Islamic powers that are certainly not “Al-Qaeda,” but that certainly will not be close to the Western policies, as was the case with Mubarak, Ben Ali and Gaddafi! While the Libyans are now refusing any foreign military interference – whether American or European – to help topple the regime and stop the bloodbath, this position does not spare the international community from its responsibilities. The sanctions are not enough and will never be, considering that around a decade of sanctions imposed on the regime did not have any impact on it. What is required then is to hasten the establishment of a no-fly zone over Tripoli, the last stronghold of the Colonel, and the exertion of pressures on some neighboring countries to prevent the arrival of the mercenaries that can extend the life of the regime and lead the country toward an experience threatening its unity. The Jamahiriya is on the decline, and what is important is not to witness a long wait. One of the protagonists of a historical novel by Ibrahim al-Koni, a renowned author from the Tuareg of Libya, was a governor of Tripoli in the eighteenth century. He used to tour the streets of the city and find them people-free, wondering with regret what it meant to be a powerful governor in a city without inhabitants. So, will Gaddafi turn Tripoli into a population-free city before he leaves?
