When the regime of Zine El Abidine Ben Ali collapsed under the weight of corruption, unemployment, and the influence of the family of his wife, Mrs. Leila, I immediately recalled an old Lebanese saying which is “Nothing ruins thrones like women and money”. As the winds of change blow on Egypt today, I recall another saying. [It loosely translates as “Don't count your chickens until they're hatched”] It should be clear that I am not against change in Egypt. If a majority of Egyptians are with change, then I cannot possibly be opposed to it, because it is the people alone that can decide. Instead, my topic today reflects decades of my work experience, Arab observations, and my experience in dealing with this or that regime. I argue that all change in the Arab world since the 1950s in Egypt until today was for the worse. So will the Tahrir Square experience break the cycle of decline, and start an Egyptian and then an Arab renaissance, for the better? I hope so, but I admit that I do not know the answer. What I know is what had transpired in Egypt and Iraq, i.e. the largest Arab country that was destined to lead the nation, and the country that was our Eastern gate, and which combined water resources, oil and a highly skilled and educated people. So what had transpired, exactly? The ‘crime' of King Farouk was the ‘political police' and the law of ‘Lese Majeste'. He was succeeded by a president that rallied the entire nation around him, not just Egypt, but who ruled through a security apparatus that he never needed. There was some measure of democracy in Egypt, and there were political parties and economic openness. But they were succeeded by a single party system, and by nationalizations that went beyond corporations and the press to people's minds. Then we entered an alliance during the Cold War with the losing dictatorial side, and paid the price through military and political adventures that later proved disastrous. What happened in Iraq, meanwhile, was much worse. In Egypt, at least, the king was allowed to leave the country on his yacht ‘Al-Mahrousa' and was succeeded by his son for a few days, before the republic was declared. In Iraq, however, the ruling Hashemite family was killed in another massacre reminiscent of Karbala, and all ruling officials were killed and their bodies dragged by the people in the streets. What did we see after that? The one undisputed leader emerged, even though we had been taught that only God is undisputed in his oneness. In subsequent coups, Abdul Salam Aref was killed, and Abdul Rafman Aref ruled, who was then ousted in another coup, making way for Ahmed Hassan al-Bakr, and Saddam Hussein after him. If the reader examines these names, he will find that each one was worse than the one before, and more ignorant and a bigger failure, up until we ended with the disaster of disasters, Saddam Hussein. His term started with a decade-long war in the 1980s against Iran. Then the Iraqis had barely breathed a sigh of relief when Saddam occupied Kuwait. The rest is history, with the defeat and the embargo, and the death of half a million Iraqi children. Then came the occupation of Iraq and the death of 1.3 million Iraqis so far, in and because of the Iraq War. I had never imagined in my life that the day would come when I would argue that there is anything worse for Iraq and its people than Saddam Hussein. However, the U.S. occupation proved to be indeed worse. The traitors who entered the country on board U.S. tanks robbed and destroyed the country, and are yet to stand trial. I also compare the shameful sectarianism today in Iraq with the reality of the country in July 14, 1958, when the Iraqi Prime Minister was a Kurd, and the Prime Minister of the union with Jordan was a Sunni. Both were preceded by Shiite Prime Ministers and a Jewish minister. But we then lived to see sectarian government thanks to the ‘liberation' of the country, and Persian influence over a government that, nearly a year after the parliamentary elections, has not yet been fully formed. From the Nile Valley and Mesopotamia to Yemen, which used to be happy, any sudden change there will mean the secession of the South again, or an extremist regime linked to al-Qaeda and its terrorism. I refuse to discuss the above with the readers, because it is facts, not an opinion. It is the right of the reader to reject my opinion and advance a counter opinion, but it is not his right to change history that we personally witnessed, or select from it what suits his whims and desires. Moving on, I owe the idea behind this article to the intelligent reader Yasser, whose brightness does not prevent him from reading what I write, and to the friend and colleague Mona Eltahawy, a young Egyptian woman who left her country in anger in 2000 and who publishes her articles in a number of world-renowned newspapers. I saw Mona on a famous U.S. program hosted by Bill Maher through HBO. She spoke exuberantly about the revolution in Egypt, and appeared during the interview as though her heart sang in joy, as she spoke about the revolution which she has for years been waiting for. Mona is dear to me, and our thoughts on social matters are similar, if not identical. However, I am older than her and more experienced. While I hope that she and I will live long enough to see her dreams for Egypt come true, I followed the program, and all throughout, I was thinking, “Don't count your chickens until they're hatched”. [email protected]
