Will Syria become the Singapore of the Middle East? My friend Nemir Kirdar, the President of the investment bank Investcorp, believes that. He proposed the idea as we were with other friends and our families on vacation for the Western holiday season. While everyone would be singing, I and Nemir would sit in the corner of the house or the restaurant, discuss what we know about Singapore and Syria, and study the possibilities. There are several requirements for a given country to become a tiger economy, which are present in both Syria and Singapore, while some fundamental differences between both countries exist. Nemir Kirdar believes that Singapore, not the United States, is the best model to be followed by Arab countries, specifically Syria. He reminded me that the founding fathers sought to build democracy and freedom first in the United States, and then the economy, whereas a country like Singapore (and China) sought to build institutions and advance its economy first, and democracy second. Since I agree with Nemir that we are an undemocratic people, I went along with him in what regards the idea of building a prosperous economy that would enable the government to gain popular support, and at which point democracy becomes possible. What is required is a strong government, a requirement that has been met by Singapore since its independence in 1965, and also by Syria. Both countries have a multiple party system but are ruled by one party. The People's Action Party has won every general election held in Singapore since 1959 before independence and since independence until now. Similarly, the Baath has been the ruling party in Syria since the sixties. Singapore underwent the experience of unity with Malaysia between 1963 and 1965, ending in secession, just like the Egyptian-Syrian unity that existed between 1958 and 1961 did. Singapore consists of 63 islands, and is named after the largest one. Their total surface area on the eve of independence was 581 square kilometers, which rose to 704 square kilometers at present, with sea reclamation, and by 2030, the total surface area is expected to increase by another one hundred square kilometers. The population of Singapore is nearly five million, consisting of citizens of Chinese, Malayan, Indian and other Asian and European descent. There is a mixture of religions in Singapore, with 42.5 percent being Buddhists, 15 percent Muslims, 14.8 percent irreligious, 14.6 percent Christians and others professing various local religions. With all the above, Singapore has no natural resources to speak of. By contrast, Syria has important natural resources, agriculture, water and oil. Its surface area is 185 thousand square kilometers and has a population of 23 million. All conquerors throughout history have passed through Syria, creating a melting pot that has given the Syrians the deserved reputation of being the best merchants in the Middle East, and Syrian women as the most beautiful women in the region. Muslims in Syria are an overwhelming majority, overtaking the proportion of Buddhists in Singapore; however, religious diversity also exists in Syria. However, Syria today lacks the widespread use of a second language, specifically English, the official language of Singapore. The GDP of Singapore was 253.7 billion U.S. dollars in 2009, or more than the combined GDP of all non-oil producing Arab countries, and half of the oil producing Arab countries. The per capita income is 53000 dollars, i.e. among the highest per capita incomes in the world. This is despite the fact that Singapore has no agriculture, while manufacturing accounts for 26.8 percent of its GDP, and services for 73.2 percent. For this reason, Singapore has the world's fourth largest foreign currency reserve in the world. Why has Syria not achieved anything like this? The cause is the closed Socialist system, in contrast with the business friendly economic system that is open, competitive and creative in Singapore. President Bashar al-Assad began a policy of cautious economic openness, after decades of isolation, and a Western economic embargo for political (read Israeli) reasons. I believe that Syria is capable if it begins a policy of economic openness out of conviction, rather than out of considering that it is an unnecessary evil. There is a trio in place to push the economy forward, consisting of Deputy Prime Minister Abdullah Dardari, who comes from the world of media and finance, the Minister of Economic Affairs Lamia Asi, who is an expert in modern technology, and the Minister of Finance Mohammed Hussein, who is rather familiar with the pulse of the street. Returning to brother Nemir Kirdar, he reminded me of the views the outside world holds on Singapore, with the bottom line being that it is not a democratic and free country in the Western sense of the words. Freedom House says that Singapore is partly free, and that the press there is not free. Meanwhile, the Level of Democracy survey published by The Economist places Singapore in the 82nd place among 167 countries surveyed. In its report on the level of freedom around the world, The Economist listed the regime in Singapore under “hybrid”, or the third ranking out of four. Does this remind the reader of Syria? By contrast: The Transparency International index placed Singapore at 3rd place out of 180 countries, while the Economist placed it first in the quality of life index in Asia, and 11th worldwide. In other words, the country is corruption free, and it preserves the rights of all of its citizenry. After a later session in London, I agreed with Nemir Kirdar that Dr. Bashar al-Assad can do in Syria what Lee Kuan Yew and his comrades did in Singapore. The nature of the regime in both countries is similar, and so is the influence wielded by the ruler. Meanwhile, the human and natural resources of Syria are much bigger. What Syria is in want of are institutions for an open, competitive and creative economy, while corruption needs to be eliminated, all under the supervision of an independent rule of law. [email protected]
