The referendum in Southern Sudan did not need to be held. It was held because there was an agreement for it to be held. However, the result was pre-determined before the process began on the 9th of this month, and before it ends in a week's time. The experience of the last six years, ever since the agreement on holding a referendum on unity or secession, was programmed in such a way as to see the South demand secession; the entire world saw this, except for Sudanese President Omar Bashir. The other result of the referendum was also pre-determined. A failed state will arise in the South, with international recognition, but without state institutions, or even a name up to now, although it has a flag, a national anthem and a capital (Juba). The worst thing about the division of Sudan is that it will be based on religion: a Muslim North, and a South with Christians and pagan tribes. The division will be the result of decades of oppression, injustice, displacement and civil war, with 1 million people killed. Taking power after a military coup in 1989, the regime of Omar Bashir did not solve any problems; instead, it aggravated the problems that existed, as it tried to impose Sharia law on non-Muslims. Bashir waited until October to promise Southerners to spend billions of dollars on their regions, on education, health, electricity, agriculture, infrastructure, production and other items, which the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) considered a type of bribery for the people of the South. President Bashir was also late in realizing the consequences of his policy. He stated on more than one occasion, on the eve of the referendum, that he would not accept a result that meant secession, and threatened all of those seeking independence for the South. However, in the end, he declared that he would be saddened by a vote for secession, and added: “We cannot deny the desire and the choice of the people of the South. This is well understood.” Some of the Sudanese president's rivals argued that Bashir wanted secession, in order to impose Sharia on the Muslim North with no opposition. He came to power in a coup supported by the Sudanese wing of the Muslim Brotherhood. However, he turned against his ally Sheikh Hassan Turabi and ended up ruling alone, with Turabi in prison, and then in the opposition. While I was reviewing the referendum and what is behind it, I tried to find some positive, reassuring points about the future of the North and the South. I found none. Oil exports make up 90 percent of Sudan's foreign currency revenues; the country exports 400,000-500,000 barrels a day, of which 75-80 percent is extracted in the South. There is a dispute over the border region of Abyei, which is rich in oil, and lies outside the referendum. There is also a dispute over South Kordofan. Under the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement, oil revenue constituted 98 percent of the state budget of the government of South Sudan, and 65 percent of the budget of the government in the North. Since export takes place in the North, this requires an agreement. The points of dispute between the two sides, with Abyei leading the list, were left to something called popular consultation, with the participation of all political parties. However, each party has its own stance, and its own interpretations, and I do not believe they will easily come to an agreement. There is a danger that Sudan's problems will spill over to its neighbors. The division of the country on a clearly religious basis, after the attacks on Christians in Iraq and Egypt, will only help Israel, which wants a state for the Jews, and states like it, based on a single religion or sect, in all of the countries of the Middle East. Israel is able to fuel the movement of the separation of Shiites in one country, or Christians in another. Perhaps the Arab League can contain some of the problems, but not solve them, if Southern Sudan joins the League, with Eritrea and Chad, whose Constitutions each says that Arabic is an official language of the country. I know that the Arab League's secretary general, Amr Moussa, will welcome South Sudan as a member. He has spoken with the Sudanese vice president and leader of the SPLM, Salva Kiir, about the situation of Arabic in the South, and Kiir told Moussa that he appreciates the Arab sensitivities toward Israel. Nonetheless, the situation remains very difficult. Southern Sudan will split off to form a state with no outlets to the sea, and has around 9 million people, of whom 85 percent are illiterate. While I believe it likely that a failed state will arise in the South, I do not rule out a failed state in the North as well (leading international organizations considered this the case even before secession). I also believe it likely that the problems of the North and the South will not remain confined to these countries. [email protected]
