Can one blame a major political issue on bad luck? Not a U.S. conspiracy, or a ruthless Zionist scheme, but just bad luck? I will try to explain. Under the title of “The Mystery of Estrangement with Damascus”, Fahmi Howeidi wrote an editorial in the Qatari newspaper Al-Sharq which he started by analyzing some of the Questions & Answers found in the interview conducted by Ghassan Charbel, Al-Hayat's editor-in-chief, with President Bashar al-Assad. Howeidi arrived at several sound conclusions, namely, that there is an intractable problem in Egyptian-Syrian relations, that President Assad believes there is something in Cairo that is seriously disrupting political relations between the two countries, and that there is something enigmatic about the relationship between the Egyptian and Syrian presidents that is preventing the improvement of ties between the two countries. I know the details from those directly concerned in Egypt and Syria, without saying more. Following the interview conducted by colleague Ghassan Charbel and the editorial of colleague Fahmi Howeidi, I thought about publishing what I know and then hesitated, because I had heard most of it in private meetings, and because it was mostly divulged off the record. However, the polemic regarding Egyptian-Syrian relations seems to refuse to abate, and I sometimes hear things that are grossly incorrect, and that may harm the interests of both countries and impede the improvement of the personal relationship between their two presidents. I thus chose to publish what I can publish of the things I heard from those directly concerned, in the hope that this will dispel incorrect rumors, and pave the way for a new beginning towards improved relations. This estrangement is seven years old or more, not five years old. Specifically, it started with the invasion of Iraq and the American threat of regime change in Syria under George W. Bush, and the visit of the then Secretary of State Colin Powell to Damascus to impose the conditions of the “victors”. But President Bashar al-Assad rejected all these conditions, even when "his back was against the wall". While the Egyptian side maintains that it has helped Syria and that it stood by its side at the time, the Syrian side asserts that Egypt did not help it and left it to face the blizzard of neo-conservative policies alone. Fast forward to the Sirte ordinary summit this year, or the attempt that could have provided a way out of the crisis in relations, were it not for sheer bad luck. In Sirte, President Bashar al-Assad took the initiative and asked to be the first Arab president to congratulate President Hosni Mubarak on his recovery and safe return home after undergoing surgery in Germany. The Egyptian delegation welcomed this move, and expressed its hopes for a new chapter in the relations that only the two presidents can open together. President Bashar al-Assad was told that the doctors said that President Mubarak needed a few days of convalescence after the surgery. Thus, each visit may only last 40 minutes in the beginning so as not to strain the president, who was going to have many visitors. But President Ali Abdullah Saleh did not know these details. He telephoned President Mubarak as soon as he returned, which coincided with the summit, and insisted on his right to be the first Arab president to congratulate him on his recovery following the surgery, in his capacity as the most senior Arab president (Colonel Gaddafi does not count because he does not consider himself to be president). President Mubarak told the Yemeni president: You are most welcome to come. The Egyptian Presidency set a date for him on Sunday at eleven in the morning. The Egyptian officials then contacted the Syrian Ambassador in Cairo and the Egyptian ambassador in Damascus, and proposed that the Syrian President comes on Monday at eleven in the morning (this took place near the end of last March). The Syrian President most likely did not know about the telephone call of the Yemeni President. While it did not matter to him whether he was the first, second or third visitor, the invitation for him to come was specific to the day and the hour, something which al-Assad took to be a summons not an invitation. This is because diplomatic norms require that the time that would suit him best be specified by him, chosen out of a few days or a week, and also as al-Assad prefers that a certain process be respected in the relations between the two countries, instead of dropping formalities. I have no explanation for this except that it is bad luck. Were it not for the sensitive nature of the relationship between the two presidents, Dr. Bashar al-Assad would have probably called President Mubarak and congratulated him on his recovery, and the Egyptian president would have insisted at that point that the former visit him without a formal request. Then bad luck continued to lurk around every corner: The Syrian President would have definitely visited Egypt to check up on President Mubarak, had the Foreign Minister Ahmed Abou Gheit, or intelligence chief General Omar Suleiman visited Damascus to give him a formal invitation. However, the Egyptian side felt that the visit is a private matter, and not an official one, and hence does not call for such formal procedures that defeat the purpose of the visit. What I recorded here is what happened as I heard it in Cairo and Damascus from those directly concerned. But bad luck cannot last forever, and the two presidents both want to improve relations, and thus the next attempt or the one after that in this vein must no doubt succeed. In the end, estrangement between Egypt and Syria harms the interests of every Arab country, and not just the two countries concerned alone. [email protected]
