I read that the U.S. Democratic Party will suffer its worst defeat in the midterm elections since 1994, but also that it will maintain its majority in both the House and the Senate. I read all the possible scenarios between these two extremes, as the bulk of American commentators seem to be selective when it comes to the available information, choosing what suits them and writing what they wish would happen. The midterm elections will be held in two weeks or so. The popularity of Sarah Palin, the former vice-presidential candidate who lost the elections in the John McCain campaign, is on the rise, while President Barack Obama's popularity is on the slump; this will inevitably be reflected in the results of the elections. Palin supports the candidates of the Tea Party, or the right wing of the already right-wing Republican Party, while Democratic candidates are being affected by the voters' anger at the president. Palin is ignorant and not very well educated. Obama is very smart and has great skills, something that has enabled him to have some accomplishments despite the ball and chain that George W. Bush left, with his wars and the severe economic crisis. In spite of that, Palin barely holds a meeting that does not attract a record number of attendees, while Obama's approval rate is below 50 percent among the voters. A recent survey even showed that 43 percent trust the Republicans more to run the economy, compared with 39 percent who expressed their confidence in the Democrats. This ignorance shown by the voters, when the Republicans are certainly the ones who ruined the U.S. economy, may also mean that Palin will emerge victorious in the midterm elections, just like she won in the primaries when the candidates she endorsed - who had a small chance in winning - defeated some of the most prominent candidates of the Republican Party. Yet, the Democrats may still have the chance to cut their losses thanks to the split among the Republicans, between the traditional segment of the Party and its right-wing base represented by the Tea Party. Here, there are interesting newspaper headlines such as: - A dream night for the Tea Party - a nightmare for the Republicans. - Tea Party victories give new hope to struggling Democrats. - Republican ‘civil war' over rise of Tea Party candidates - Republican revolution. A month after the surprising primaries, Palin continues to be in a strong position, and Obama is still suffering, pushing commentators to put aside next month's elections and speculate on the presidential elections after two years. However, I believe that these conjectures are meaningless, because Palin did not announce her bid to run for President, although she has hinted at it, and also because her political future largely depends on the outcome of the midterm elections and on how well the candidates she has endorsed will fare: If they win, she will be more likely to run in the elections, but if they lose, she will be less likely to do so. In other words, the candidates whom Palin has endorsed defeated other Republican candidates in the primaries; however, they will face the representatives of the Democratic Party in the midterm elections, and some of the latter are more popular than their Republican counterparts. I shall return to some of their names tomorrow. At any rate, Palin will encounter many famous and experienced Republican rivals in the battle for the nomination for the presidency, and have the support of the Party's traditional leadership. There is Newt Gingrich, the former House Speaker who left in the aftermath of a scandal but who has since returned to the limelight in the ranks of the extreme right. In my opinion, he is not fit for any post, as he is an infamous opportunist who claims that because of his African father, Obama espouses "Kenyan anti-colonial' views. There is Mitt Romney, the former governor of Massachusetts, the former Arkansas government Mike Huckabee and former New York Mayor Rudolph Giuliani. Each of these politicians is more experienced and capable than Palin, although Giuliani, in my personal opinion, is damaged goods, while Romney's weak point is that he is a Mormon, and Huckabee is a former preacher. I would prefer to wait for the results of the midterm elections before I express an opinion on the Republican presidential candidates. I also prefer to avoid making any speculations regarding the midterm elections, since I have learned that it is always better and safer to write as a historian, and not as a diviner. Today, I will only say that Obama's entire political history shows that the angels were on his side in each battle he has fought, and perhaps the dispute between the Republican Party and its right-wing, represented by the Tea Party, is a testament that Obama has not yet run out of good luck. On the first Tuesday of next month, we will know the answer. [email protected]
