The proven oil reserves in Iraq are estimated to be at around 115 billion barrels, the second largest reserves in the world after Saudi Arabia. However, Iraq's production capacity has remained low for several reasons. These include the fact that the foreign oil companies operating in Iraq placed their private interests first, until the early 1970s, as they decided at the time that it is not in their interests to increase production in Iraq, but rather [to do so] in other countries. Afterwards, Iraq witnessed a period of wars and an international embargo. After having peaked at the end of the 1970s and reached 3.9 million barrels per day, Iraq's production capacity declined and is now 2.5 million barrels per day. This capacity is predicted to increase by the middle of this decade to about 12 million barrels per day, according to the 11 agreements recently signed with several international oil companies, and should the political conditions in the country become stable. In truth, this is an important assumption that cannot be understated given the tragic conditions besetting the country at present. But in the event that the oil agreements were executed according to the agreed timetable, a very large exportation capacity must also be established in parallel, including pipelines, pumps and tanks that can store 11 million barrels per day. The current operating export capacity of Iraq does not exceed 4.8 million barrels per day, including 3.2 million barrels per day from the south through the Gulf and 1.6 million barrels per day through Turkey. This is while noting that these figures reflect the nominal capacity only of these pipes, since the lack of necessary maintenance over the past years does not enable the use of these pipe systems at maximum capacity at present. Given all of this, it is clear that Iraq is in dire need of diversifying and increasing the number of its export terminals, and through several countries, in order to accommodate the new influx of oil. According to the new agreements with the international companies, it is the responsibility of the Iraqi government to provide export terminals, and hence Iraq is liable for any delay in exports and any ensuing compensation to these companies. As is known, the increase of production to 12 million barrels per day will not happen overnight, but through a gradual increase in production capacity. Hence, the significance of starting the construction of new pipelines or repairing and upgrading old ones is further emphasized. Iraq must tend to its oil interests, and place them at the top of its list of national security priorities. It is illogical to protect oil installations in the same country, and then adopt a contradictory policy that is hostile to neighboring countries, ignoring the fact that there are Iraqi oil pipelines that pass through them. The fact of the matter is that Iraq has signed agreements worth billions of dollars for the construction of new pipelines, including, for example, the agreement to extend the contract for the pipeline through Turkey by 15 to 20 years, in addition to entering into negotiations for the construction of two crude oil pipelines through Syria with a capacity of 2.75 million barrels per day (of which one is expected to carry light crude from the south, and the other heavy crude from the north). There is also a project to build a gas pipeline through Syria to carry Iraqi gas into the Arab Gas Pipeline project, then to the Nabucco pipeline and into Europe. In the foreseeable future, Iraq is expected to work on building new export terminals overlooking the Gulf, since the majority of oil fields are located in the south, and also because the new markets are located in Asia, further underscoring the need to export larger quantities through the Gulf and the Red Sea unto Asian markets. Since the talk now is about pipelines (for crude oil and gas) through neighboring countries, there is also talk in the media at present about the possibility of transporting Iranian gas through Iraq, Syria and then into the Arab Gas Pipeline and the Nabucco pipeline. Here, the following question arises: What strategic and financial benefit can Iraq obtain from the construction of a pipeline to transport Iranian gas through Iraq at this time, as it would compete with the Iraqi gas in the same markets? Is it not more useful to wait for the construction of the Iraqi pipeline first and secure markets for it, before opening the way for the gas of a neighboring country to compete with it, through the territory of Iraq itself? It should be mentioned that Iraq is ranked 11 worldwide in terms of the volume of its gas reserves. However, the development of the gas sector, for both the domestic and foreign markets, has been delayed for too long. Consequently, it is expected that years in delay will elapse before Iraq can develop its gas [production] capacity and exports. *. Mr. Khadduri is an energy expert
