Who will fill the vacuum after the withdrawal of the US Army from Iraq? It is a question which the Americans have asked, holding work meetings over it that have included politicians, members of the military and strategy experts. Some of those meetings have been of a secret nature, including the direct participation of allies of the United States, while others were public and held in research centers and universities. Most of these meetings started from a given, which is that Washington has begun its phase of retreat, and that its old yet new plans of building a Middle East entirely subjected to its policies has suffered a major setback, after tremendous military progress under President George Bush. This explains President Barack Obama's realism and his announcement that he would not celebrate victory in Iraq, which his army is leaving after having drowned it in chaos which Washington mistakenly believed to be creative. Looking at coalitions in the region, the US and its allies realize that the “Axis of Evil” represented by the Syrian-Iranian alliance feels that it has been able to overcome the danger, and that can now start the phase of counterattack and of upsetting the allies who wagered on Washington. They also realize that military retreat might tempt this alliance to try to fill the vacuum in Iraq and to bring its supporters to power there. In other words, Iran and Syria may try to turn Iraq into a bridge that would connect the two allies geographically in order to reverse the balance of power in the whole region. Taking into account this reality, resulting from the regression of its plans to change the face of the region, Washington's only option was to open up to Damascus, convince its allies to reduce their attacks against it, and tempt it into returning to Lebanon to exercise its political influence, in collaboration with Lebanese parties who had until very recently the ambition of overthrowing the system of governance there. Regarding Iran, the United States has turned a blind eye to its nuclear reactor being supplied with enriched uranium from Russia, and is trying to reach an understanding with it over relaxing the situation in Iraq and bringing to power leaders who would be loyal to both sides. This explains the US suggesting an alliance between Ayad Allawi and Nouri Al-Maliki to form a government that would represent everyone. It is an innocent and “democratic” suggestion in form, but at the same time it would produce a government which would be paralyzed at the level of domestic and foreign political decisions. This may be in Iraq's interest at the moment, if it heads towards rebuilding what the occupation has destroyed. And in fact, the only thing that explains the delay in forming the Iraqi government is this tug of war between the US and Iran. What role does Israel play in covering the US military withdrawal? What role do the US's Arab allies play in filling the vacuum? Every time the United States has tried to implement its strategy in the Middle East, it would resort to activating Palestinian-Israeli and Arab-Israeli negotiations. This is what happened in 1991 when the Madrid Conference was held, after the cosmic war against Iraq under George Bush Senior. This is also what happened in 1993, at the height of the sanctions and embargo against Baghdad, with the Oslo Accords. Even Bush Junior pledged to settle the Palestinian issue when he invaded Mesopotamia in 2003. And this is what is happening now during the retrogression and retreat of its plans to establish an empire. For this reason, one connected with US strategy, or the stable part of it at least, direct talks are being held between the Palestinians and the Israelis in Washington, with Arab cover represented by King Abdullah II and President Hosni Mubarak, who have both ratified peace treaties with the Hebrew state. Both have a role to play, albeit a limited one, in filling the vacuum and in covering the US withdrawal and confronting Iran. Having become aware of this reality, Israel is trying to blackmail the United States to the farthest extent, using its old instruments, such as the Jewish lobby, the Christian Zionist lobby, money and the media, to pressure the Obama Administration, which has yielded to all of Netanyahu's conditions and imposed them on President Mahmoud Abbas and the Ramallah government. Israel, then, has benefited from both the first and the second Gulf War, from the occupation of Iraq and from turning it into a failed state by every standard, as well as from turning Iran into the primary enemy of the Arabs. And here it is today returning to the negotiations under its own terms, making use of Washington's need of them amidst its military withdrawal, and offering its willingness to fill, with its “allies”, the vacuum it will result in. This is a new phase of the confrontation between the US plan and the plan opposed to it in the Middle East, under the banner of bringing friends closer together, and it might reflect in unrest in Lebanon and Iraq. As for the Palestinian-Israeli negotiations, everyone know that they will produce neither a settlement nor peace, and that they will remain the mark of US-Israeli blackmail of the Arabs, who have no plan of their own.
