If figures do not lie, they say that the West will end some day and be succeeded by the Arabs, Muslims, Catholics and India. Birth statistics around the world are demonstrating that for several years, there has been a fixed trend: declining population in western countries, and a rise in the rest of the world. My interest in the matter was piqued by international statistics and information published by The Guardian. I compared it to other figures, from the United Nations, and relied on researchers at al-Hayat to come up with a picture of the world in a few years. This means that if I am wrong in today's column, no one will be able to hold me accountable before 20 years go by, when I will have forgotten my name, or readers will have forgotten me. In the West, the average number of children per mother is approximately less than two, which means the population in each country will decline over time. For example, the rate in France is 1.9, while it is 1.8 in Britain, 1.4 in Germany, 1.7 in the Netherlands, 1.3 in Russia and 1.2 in Ukraine, which is the lowest figure I saw. Iceland was the exception, with an average rate of 2, but I suppose that they need warmth there; the average in the US is the same, but I believe this is due to the rise in the number of immigrants, especially from Latin America. I read that the average number of children per mother in China is 1.7, compared to 2.9 in India, which means the latter will be the world's most heavily populated country in the coming decade. In China today there are 1.3 billion people, compared to 1.15 billion in India. All Muslim countries have higher rates: Indonesia (2.2 children per mother), Pakistan (3.6) and Iran (2). In Arab countries there is an even higher rate: Yemen (5.6), Iraq (4.4), Syria and Jordan (3.2 each), Egypt (3), Libya (2.8), and Lebanon and Kuwait (2.2. each). The Gulf states have similar rates, between 2 and 3, while the figure for the Comoros Islands stands at 4.5. If we do not defeat them on the battlefield, we can still defeat them in the bedroom. The Arab figures are encouraging on two points: education and AIDS. The statistics on the West merely say that the rate of education stands at 99 percent, and is sometimes higher by a few decimal points. While the Arab figures are lower, they reveal actual progress in education in every country, and especially in the Gulf. In Bahrain the rate stands at 88 percent, in Saudi Arabia it is 85 percent, in Oman 84.4 percent, and above 90 in the UAE, Qatar and Kuwait. In all of these countries, the percentage of educated women is lower than that of men, with the exception of Qatar, where it is 90.2 percent for men and 90.3 percent for women. Perhaps the figures here reflect the efforts of Sheikha Moza al-Musannad, the wife of the emir. The Palestinian territories registered among the highest rates in education (93.5 percent), followed by 93.1 percent in Jordan (96.5 percent for men and 89.4 percent for women), 86.8 percent in Libya (94.5 percent for men and 78.4 percent for women), 86.5 percent in Lebanon (92.4 percent for men and 81 percent for women), and 74 percent in Iraq (84.1 percent for men and 64.2 percent for women). Moving from education to AIDS, we find that Arab countries are the world's least infected with the deadly sexually-transmitted disease, with most states not exceeding a rate of one-tenth percent. Other Muslim countries, such as Indonesia and Pakistan, have protected themselves. Thanks to education and health care, western countries have succeeded in limiting the spread of the disease, despite the well-known licentiousness in these societies, as the infection rate is usually lower than one percent. The biggest disaster is in Africa, where the rates are frightening, due to the ease by which the disease has spread. Among the numbers available are Nigeria (3.9 percent), Kenya (6.1 percent), Liberia (5.9 percent), Tanzania (6.5 percent) and Uganda (6.4 percent). The worst rates are in Malawi (14.1 percent), Mozambique (16.1 percent), Zambia (17 percent), Zimbabwe (20.1 percent) and Lesotho (23.2 percent). Will these countries become extinct? I hope that the advanced world discovers a cure, and that the states with the means, and international organizations, can assist African peoples devastated by AIDS, since the situation is highly tragic. The average life expectancy in Zambia, Zimbabwe and Malawi is around 40 years, compared to 80 or more in Europe. During the search for figures on education, average life expectancy, income, medical care and other items, I ran across the name Micronesia, which I know from its voting record in line with the US and Israel. I discovered that this great country has an area of 270.6 square miles, is inhabited by 108,000 people, and uses the dollar as its currency. Congratulations to Israel, with Micronesia, as it stands against the rest of the world. On the other end of size and population there is China, with an area of 3.7 million square miles, a population of 1.3 billion people; India (1.16 billion people on an area of 1.3 million square miles); the US (3.8 million square miles and 301 million people); and Brazil (3.1 million square miles and 184 million people). The biggest Arab countries in terms of size are Algeria (919,000 square miles), Sudan (967,000) and Saudi Arabia (865,000). I know that the Arab world has a thousand and one problems, but the figures do not lie, and some of them are good when it comes to the Arab world.
