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The Benefit of Boycotting… or Participating
Published in AL HAYAT on 20 - 08 - 2010

It is natural for the struggle between the ruling National Democratic Party in Egypt and opposition forces to heat up; however, it is not natural, or even useful, for the struggle among opposition parties and forces to explode, as these groups are extremely weak, and cannot tolerate any more of this trait. It is true that the leaders of these parties put on big smiles before the cameras, but this does not hide what is in their hearts, which usually involves conflicting interests between this or that party, or this or that grouping.
Elections for Egypt's Parliament will take place on 27 November. This is news, since it is the first time that the election date has been announced. What about the climate in which the elections will take place? As of Thursday evening, it appears that the Egyptian opposition forces are divided among themselves, and perhaps will compete for seats in the legislature. This is their right. However, the opposition finds itself dealing with contradictory stances, and there are few common denominators among these groups. The divisions among them are far greater than the areas of agreement or cooperation, to confront the NDP.
These elections take on considerable importance; they will outline the future political map of Egyptian society over the coming years, and also have a great impact on determining the identity of the next president of Egypt. Each party that wishes to contest the presidential elections should have at least a seat in Parliament. It is no secret that no opposition party in Egypt has a hope of winning the presidency, and that the actions and activities of some opposition figures and public personalities, such as Dr. Mohammad El Baradei, MP Hamdin Sabahi, or Dr. Ayman Nour, are about embarrassing the regime, more than winning its top post or competing against the NDP candidate.
There is a state of chaos when it comes to the presidential race, and the NDP's delay in announcing its stance on the elections does not mean that the NDP will wage a big or even small battle for the presidency. But the astonishing thing would be for the party to try to create a competitor or two for its candidates, so it does not appear that the NDP is running against itself. However, the NDP will find itself forced to wage a true battle before and during the People's Assembly elections. Domestically, there is tension and conflict at various organizational levels, to determine its candidates in various districts. Meanwhile, the party will have to avoid the experience of the previous round, which saw it win less than 30 per cent of the seats, before this defeat was compensated for by re-absorbing its members who ran as independents and won, which resulted in their being stripped of their party membership.
Once again, it is a game that the NDP plays in every election round. The strange thing is that the opposition parties and forces know all of this. Nonetheless, they are unable to rein in their disputes and arrive at an agreement about whether to participate or boycott the upcoming polls. It seems that the Tagammo and Wafid parties have made up their minds and decided to take part, along with the Muslim Brotherhood, while the Democratic Front party has opted to boycott. The Nasserists are thinking about boycotting, while the rest of the parties will calculate whether they will win or lose by either taking part or boycotting, without this having an impact in the first place, whatever they decide.


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