The main focus in energy conferences these days revolves around certain developments that have important future implications. In one of those specialized conferences held in Europe recently, speakers tackled topics that they considered essential to define the future trends of this industry. Here, we will attempt to summarize these topics. The oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico garnered great importance, given its impact on deep water offshore oil production in the United States, and its legal and political repercussions that are predicted to haunt the oil industry in the country, in addition to BP and its partners on the long run. This incident will particularly affect small and medium size companies in the future, due to the increased costs of drilling and producing oil in deep waters. While a mega corporation such as BP may be able to bear the losses and costs resulting from the blast and the ensuing spill, there are many doubts that ‘independent' companies are able to bear the expected increases in the costs of insurance, or of procuring the necessary equipment to prevent the pollution of shores. Politically, the gravity of the incident lies in the difficulty of getting President Barack Obama to re-allow drilling in deep water marine blocks, given the opposition he would face by Democratic congressmen. The incident also betrays the frailty of the so-called energy independence policy of the United States, which President Obama and his predecessors attempted to enact. In truth, the use of new techniques in the deep sea without being tested, or without verifying their accuracy and effectiveness, indicates that the United States is compelled to carry out these projects to secure oil from inaccessible areas, in lieu of importing larger quantities of oil from OPEC countries where oil is available in onshore regions close to the surface, and can be recovered in technically easier and less expensive methods. There also are several thorny legal issues expected to be addressed by courts for many years to come. If found guilty of negligence, BP will face a big problem, while the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico will prove to be a serious challenge for the entire oil industry. In fact, some may take advantage of this incident to call for a reduction in oil consumption, and here lies the great significance of the future repercussions of this incident. The second factor that attracted attention during the conference was the new technology used in the United States to extract shale gas, where it has become possible to obtain large quantities of natural gas by cracking shale, thanks to pressurized water imbued with chemicals, and then releasing and collecting natural gas from these rocks. Despite the fact that many speakers at the conference stressed the importance of this breakthrough and the large quantities of natural gas that can be extracted using this method in the United States, they admitted at the same time that there are negative environmental effects, and that nearby water sources may be contaminated in the process, given the fact that shale is located in very deep underground areas. The speakers also noted the difficulty of applying this technology in Europe, as shale there is located near major cities and water sources, especially in Austria and Poland. Naturally, the impact of the Gulf of Mexico's oil spill was further underscored in the assessment of this new technique, given its negative environmental effects. The majority of the participants at the conference thus predicted that shale gas extraction will be restricted to the United States in the short term. In the speakers' own assessments, there will henceforth be competition between natural gas and coal, due to the extensive use of these two kinds of fossil fuels in power plants. There was also great interest in the oil-related developments in Iraq, in particular in what regards whether Iraq will be actually able to produce over 11 million barrels per day by mid-next decade, and become one of the top three oil-producing countries in the world (along with Saudi Arabia and Russia). This is because political disputes, poor infrastructure and the weakness of state institutions may well delay this plan in such a manner that Iraq will not be able to produce more than six to eight million barrels per day in the designated period (which is at any rate a considerable quantity). Consequently, the focus shifted to the role of Iraq's oil on the international scene starting from the next decade. Finally, there was considerable interest at the conference in resuscitating nuclear energy, following its two-decade slumber. Today, there are nearly 50 nuclear power plants under construction in various countries around the world. Naturally, these reactors will not become operational before the end of the present decade or the start of the next one, given the long period of time required to complete the construction of these reactors. Despite the importance and priority assigned by many countries to nuclear energy, this industry still faces considerable difficulties before it can be adopted on a wider scale. For instance, there are the issues of ensuring the safety of operations, security, initial set-up costs, the availability of skilled personnel to work in this industry, and the international checks and balances seeking to ensure no nuclear weapons are being produced. * Writer specializing in energy matters
