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Iran and Oil Sanctions
Published in AL HAYAT on 30 - 06 - 2010

Iran has entered a spiral of painful international sanctions that remind us of the “wise” policy of President Saddam Hussein toward his country and people, which remained for more than a decade under sanctions that deprived them of their natural oil wealth; Iran's oil sector has yet to recover.
Today, Iran prefers to develop nuclear weapons instead of securing its people's requirements of gasoline and oil through developing refineries that are no longer sufficient to cover local consumption; it is facing a reduction of supplies for oil products that it imports, even though it is a big country in OPEC.
It is difficult to imagine how a big oil country like Iran has, for years, imported gasoline and oil and huge quantities of gas for domestic consumption from Turkmenistan, while it holds the world's third-largest gas reserves, after Russia and Qatar.
The leadership of Iran's Revolution believes that it is better for their people to have nuclear weapons than it is for them to benefit from the country's oil and gas wealth, to secure a comfortable daily life. Indeed, the Iranian leadership has neglected to develop the capabilities of its ten refineries to secure the country's requirements of oil products, preferring instead to depend on gasoline and gas imports from Turkmenistan. For years, it negotiated with big oil companies to develop the huge Pars gas field, until the companies pulled out, including Shell and Spain's Repsol. National companies were tasked with the job, but they lack natural gas technology, which cannot be obtained, under the sanctions, from the United States.
Now, and as a result of the new American sanctions that have been under study by Congress, international oil firms like Total and Repsol announced that a few months ago they had halted their supplies of oil products to Iran, after having supplied the country with its gasoline and oil requirements. The decision was taken in anticipation of American sanctions, and of European Union countries' possible future sanctions on the oil sector. The Iranian authorities can locate a seller of gasoline in the market, but at high prices, and with more difficulty, due to international, and especially US sanctions.
Iran's oil minister claims the country has a productive capacity of more than 4 million barrels a day, but it only currently produces 3.6 million barrels, at its utmost capacity, according to oil experts. The director of investment at the Iranian Oil Company, Hojatollah Ghanimifard, said that Iranian oil production was dropping by 250,000 barrels a day and expressed concern about securing the funds necessary to compensate for these amounts of oil, which traditionally fall in any oil field being exploited.
Due to the sanctions on Iran's banking sector, it will be difficult for the country to develop its oil fields and purchase the gasoline it needs from the open market, and from sellers of oil products, who benefit from sanctions to secure huge returns for the sale of gasoline.
The director of investment at the Iranian company said that Iran is ready to invest $200 billion in the oil sector over the next five years, of which $75 billion will go to external financing. How will this foreign financing get there, with the American blockade only permitting financial investments of less than $20 million a year?
Iran will enter a new phase of true cost-of-living difficulties, which affect Iranian society. It will be difficult to find gasoline, which will become more expensive, and social problems and popular discontent will rise, along with oppression. Iran's economic situation is deteriorating, despite its oil revenues, amid inflation and unemployment, while investments in the oil and energy sector are being stalled.


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