The west used to justify its strategic military partnership with Turkey in NATO on the grounds that the country represented the first line of defense in its confrontation with the Soviet Union. It would say Turkey was a secular state that had taken wide-ranging steps to adopt western and American values. As part of this partnership, the Turkish Army created thousands of Islamic religious schools, and graduated hundreds of mosque preachers annually, to stand against atheism and the leftist, communist, and nationalist trends that were hostile to the west. This was also in the interest of Israel, which became the other plank of this alliance. This was in the days of the Cold War, when the United States supported Islamic fundamentalists to confront the Communists, wherever they were, and especially in Afghanistan and the Indian Sub-continent (the roots of the Afghan and Arab mujahideen, whose leadership fell to Osama bin Laden). However, things have changed. The Cold War is now part of history. The Soviet Union collapsed. Communism receded. Arab nationalism was defeated. The old version of Turkey's role is no longer required. What Ankara needs to do is be the military and political base for confronting the “Axis of Evil” (Iran and Iraq, before the occupation) and Syria, and to stand with Israel in any confrontation or Arab attempt to resist the Jewish state. However, many people have failed to notice the change underway in Turkey itself. The graduates of the religious schools have come to power in big cities, and then the national government. The grip of the army has loosened a bit, in the hope of joining the paradise of the European Union. The army can no longer order the Islamists around. The state has its own interests, which are in contradiction, sometimes, and often with the interests of its partners. There are many indicators of this change. Most importantly, Ankara refused to give the United States Army permission to use its territory as a springboard for occupying Iraq. It refused to allow US planes to fly from the famous Incirlik Air Base. It has not been hostile to Iran, which became the “Great Satan” in the George W. Bush era. Most recently, it signed an agreement to transport uranium with Ahmadinejad, which Washington (and Israel) believed would save Tehran from United Nations sanctions, or at least delay them. Turkey also changed, by no longer being “that poor country.” Its economy is the 16th biggest in the world. Turkey's political and security situation is stable, despite the attacks by separatist Kurds. All of this has led to the slogan of “independence and liberation from dependency,” and to a search for its interests in its Middle Eastern and formerly Soviet neighboring environment. It has begun to put forward ambitious projects and strategic economic partnerships, with Syria, Iraq and Iran, and the countries of the Arab Gulf. In short, Turkey has become a strong competitor to any state seeking to extend its influence in the Middle East, including the US. Its friendship with Israel has become a burden on its policy orientations, and Turkey has raised the banner of neo-Ottomanism, implicitly using religion to affect surrounding countries. The struggle we see today between Turkey and Israel represents the beginning of big changes in the struggle over, and in, the Middle East. Religion, whether moderate or not, will be at the heart of this struggle. In the past, the US used religion to fight communism, and President Barack Obama is trying to use it, to remove the hostility to Washington. Israel has used religion to frighten the west. Iran has put forward its slogans, to extend its influence. Today, Turkey might resort to using the slogan of Jerusalem to guarantee its interests. As for the Arab peoples that will be impacted by this or that state, and in the absence of any specific political project for them, they face only division, and holding up pictures of Erdogan, or Khomeini.
