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Economic analysis – The Currencies' Conflicts...and Crises
Published in AL HAYAT on 03 - 05 - 2010

During the Greek financial crisis, the European currency was subjected to massive repercussions that dipped it to its last year's level of 1.31 dollars, from its peak value that almost reached 1.5 dollars. However, it is clear from experience that major currencies are affected not only by the general economic outlook within the currency's sphere, region or international scope of circulation, but also by other hidden parameters. In two years, the values of strong currencies such as the Dollar, the Euro and the British Pound have dropped, while the Chinese Yuan continued to be undervalued. But it is clear that the reasons behind this are multifaceted.
The economic portrait of the currencies' realities reveal that the decline in their value – even if somewhat linked to direct economic shakeups- is now subject to national policies aimed at achieving competitiveness in the value of their respective countries' exports. It thus seems that the global economic crisis, which primarily affected the major economies, has invalidated many standards in the ethics of trade.
In reality, many economies adopted protectionism as a core approach to bolster the home front on the one hand, and the devaluation of their national currencies on the other, in order to maintain their share of foreign markets.
In truth, the value of a strong currency such as the dollar is now gradually decreasing. On the surface, this currency appears as though it is weak. However, those behind the devaluation of the dollar were searching for a method to boost and enhance their domestic output by opening new foreign markets. As a result, this output now enjoys the successful formula of quality and good price for the consumers. This approach – on the level of the U.S currency – translates into the reduction of the trade balance deficit of the United States, while reducing the trade balance surplus of the rival countries including China. This is while the costs of goods and products in European countries have risen, owing to the fact that Europe's currency increased in value against the other major currencies, at a time when the Euro zone countries are attempting to enhance their exports but without success.
The same portrait also reveals the dollar as the primary currency for international trade, despite the losses it has incurred. However, it is also revealed that the Euro and the Chinese Yuan are rather the currencies of unguaranteed wagering. For instance, the Greek crisis prompted many investors and speculators to liquidate their assets in the Euro, for fear that the European Union might fail in bailing out Athena.
However, the Euro continues to follow a clear trend, although economists predict that it will reach the level of 1.33 dollars at the end of this year, and much less at the end of next year.
However, this level – if indeed reached – will not intimidate the Euro zone, as it will benefit from the decrease in the value of its currency to secure better competiveness for its exports. Such exports, in turn, would contribute to the recovery of the European economy in the Euro zone (in value), and also to achieving a broader economic recovery that helps mitigate the soaring unemployment and reduce its levels.
As for the countries that pegged their currencies to the dollar, they are either oil producing countries which compensate for their losses through rising oil prices, or non oil-producing countries. These latter suffer from a twofold loss, firstly because of the deterioration of the dollar's value, and secondly, because of rising oil prices. Such countries need to put in place a long-term economic vision that might force them to peg their national currency to a basket of currencies, instead of gambling and pegging it to a single currency.
While the dollar and the euro are declining in value, China finds itself unconcerned by re-floating its national currency or even readjusting its value. This is because the monetary politics aimed at cancelling interest rates on the national currencies (up to zero percent interest), are more focused on devaluating currencies. Subsequently, those who are devaluating their currencies cannot ask countries such as China to increase the value of their currency, as this would lead to a recession in trade and hence, to lower economic growth and stature in the world economy, while China is the country that saved the global economy from recession.
It should be mentioned here that countries and economic blocs such as the United States, the Euro zone, Britain and Japan adopt interest rates that are nearly zero, with the aim of not encouraging investments, but boosting exports which in turn boost domestic production.
There is no doubt that the global economic cycle has seen many currencies that played a pivotal role in history. Prior to the Great War, the British and French – then the Spanish- currencies dominated the world markets. However, the Second World War, which devastated Europe, allowed the United States to support it. Subsequently, the dollar became a worldwide currency until the Euro was adopted in 1999.
As long as the global economy is growing in Asia, the Chinese currency will play a pivotal role. However, the available figures up until the end of 2009 show that the dollar remains the most attractive currency in the world. According to these figures, out of 60 percent of the central bank reserves in the world estimated at 7500 billion dollars, 62 percent was in the dollar, surpassing the euro which was at 28 percent. And until the beginning of the global financial crisis, the dollar hogged 86.3 percent of the volume of international daily exchange which amounted to 3200 billion dollars.
However, it is feared that the desired global reforms will not touch on the reality of international currencies, which have become a commodity controlled by speculators.


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