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A More Complex World
Published in AL HAYAT on 09 - 04 - 2010

The US-Russian summit that was held yesterday in Prague does not resemble the US-Soviet summits. The world did not hold its breath. Small countries were not afraid of being the victim of an agreement or the continuous movement of pawns and proxy wars. The two-camp world is dead, with everything this entails in terms of racing, divisions, fears, and safety valves. The terminology of that period is not applicable anymore for interpretations.
Barack Obama and Dmitry Medvedev are both aware of this truth. It is not enough for them to meet and agree for fires to be extinguished and crises to take the road to settlement. The weight of the absent parties has registered remarkable progress in the past years. The global financial crisis has highlighted the rise of the Chinese giant. It showed that Mao's heirs read from the book of prosperity and investment and that they only kept from the Little Red Book what justifies an imposed stability.
India also is no longer just a sea of poor people. It is seriously waging the battle of belonging to the current century. It registered remarkable progress in the participation in the technological revolution and is still modernizing its economy and learning. Amid the Asian rise, India is searching for its regional and international position. It fumbles for its position in the club of the great nations and observes. It has an eye on China, which is pleased with its economic growth and the development of its scientific, technological, and military capacity. It also has an eye on nuclear and confused Pakistan, which seems to be drowning in a suicide cycle that could turn it into an arena and a source of dangers.
Europe should not be absent from the picture. However, this is not a source of concern, as its economic weight allows it to play an important role. The lack of a unified political will turn its role into a supportive or complementary one. In order to broaden the scope of unity, there are negative prices to pay in parallel to the positive sides. It is hard to make rapid progress amid this much different languages and experiences, and the effect of narrow policies sometimes.
It is not enough for Obama and Medvedev to meet. Kim Jong-il's regime belongs to an era that is supposed to have ended. However, the venerable leader is happily hovering over a strict party, a dragging army, and millions of poor people. He started in the past years a rewarding game: nuclear blackmail.
The current Iranian regime is a completely special case, albeit in the shadow of the two-camp world but outside the two terminologies. The death of Imam Khomeini did not have the same effects as that of Mao. Khomeini's heirs consider themselves to be the guards of the burning coals of the Revolution. Today's Iran has launched more than one upheaval in the region. It wants to cause the collapse of the region's balances and believes it is the most capable for being the regional leader. Linking the export of the Revolution to the nuclear dream has heightened the “Iranian problem”. George Bush's sin in Iraq gave Tehran its golden opportunity.
There is a side that has taken over the list of interests and priorities: it is Al Qaeda and its project for changing the features of the Arab and Islamic world to the sound of clashes with America in particular and the West in general. It is obvious that the September 11 attacks were the launching strike of a long war. Al Qaeda was fragmented and duplicated until suicide bombers became part of the daily scene in the countries where there are Al Qaeda schools or where the central authority is diminished. The recent Moscow bombings are reminiscent of the New York attacks and many other attacks. Medvedev's country is not more fortified than Obama's country. There are some fires that are burning within the cloak of the Soviet Union.
The signature of START 2 remains an important historical event that was preceded by a US review of the nuclear strategy. It will be followed in a few days by the nuclear security summit in Washington with the participation of the Chinese president. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad can keep on threatening to light up the region in response to any attack. This does not exempt him from the obligation of reading into great and large-scope interests. Fiery statements are not enough sometimes for protection. The issue is more complex than he believes, even if it is obvious that it is not enough for the master of the White House to meet with the Kremlin's Caesar for the world to change.


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